With 28 seats in the Lok Sabha, Karnataka is expected to play an important role in the next elections. According to the projections provided by Chennai Mathematical Institute's Director Professor Rajeeva Karandikar, Congress will win 10-18 seats, BJP 6-10 and JDS 4-8.
Even though its popularity rating is lower than what it was six months ago, the Congress has the backing of 42 per cent voters. The main opposition BJP is making a good progress and has gained 12 per cent votes in the last six months.
The BJP is likely get 32 per cent votes if elections are held in January 2014 according Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll. The JDS is expected to garner 18 per cent, the AAP 3 per cent and others 5 per cent votes respectively.
Karnataka has 28 Lok Sabha seats. In the 2009 elections, the BJP won 19, Congress 6 and the JDS 3 seats respectively.
The poll tracker findings prove that most people are opposed to the re-entry of former CM BS Yeddyurappa into the BJP. Overall 50 per cent respondents are opposed to it. Only 32 per cent are backing his re-entry. Among the traditional BJP backers, 53 per cent are supporting his re-entry and 37 per cent are against it.
Surprisingly, among the Lingayats, who are considered the biggest backers of Yeddyurappa, 51 per cent voters are opposing his re-entry. Only 30 per cent Lingayats are backing it.
Overall, 43 per cent respondents feel that Yeddyurappa would be a liability for the BJP. Only 29 per cent feel that he would be an asset. Among the traditional BJP backers, 37 per cent feel that he would be a liability and 47 per cent feel that he would be an asset.
On Congress government in the state
Most respondents are aware of the populist schemes launched by the Siddaramaiah government. Two of his populist schemes Anna Bhagya and Ksheera Bhagya are very well known across the state.
Overall 46 per cent respondents also feel that the Congress government in Karnataka is better than the previous BJP government. Only 21 per cent respondents feel that the BJP government was better than the Congress government.
Among the traditional Congress backers, 78 per cent feel that the Congress government is better. Among the traditional BJP supporters, 51 per cent feel that their government was better.
Interestingly, six out of 10 respondents feel that the JDS of the HD Deve Gowda should fight the Lok Sabha elections on its own. Among the few who want the JDS to tie-up, there is a divided opinion on who it should ally with. While 40 per cent respondents back a Congress-JDS alliance, 35 per cent back a JDS-BJP alliance.
High level of satisfaction
Satisfaction with the Congress government in the state is very high. Over 71 per cent respondents say that they are happy with the performance of the Congress government in the state. Just 24 per cent voters say they are dissatisfied.
Siddaramaiah is more popular than his party and 76 per cent respondents are happy with him. Just 20 per cent say that they are not happy with him.
However, despite high level of satisfaction with the state government and the chief minister, there is hardly any pro-government mood. Just 36 per cent voters feel that state government should get another chance with 34 per cent of the opinion that it should not.
UPA very unpopular
Like most of India, the Congress-led UPA at the Centre is very unpopular in Karnataka too with 52 per cent respondents dissatisfied with the Central government. Interestingly, PM Manmohan Singh's ratings are still better than his government's ratings with 53 per cent respondents feeling that they are happy with his performance.
One more interesting thing is dissipation of the pro-UPA mood seen in Karnataka soon after Assembly polls. A total of 49 per cent respondents feel that the UPA government at the Centre should not get another chance and just 33 per cent back it.
Modi leads PM race
Like most other states, BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is leading the PM race also in Karnataka with 28 per cent respondents backing him for the post of PM. Rahul Gandhi has got 19 per cent support. Interestingly, Sonia Gandhi has got 14 per cent support for the post of PM. Local leader and former PM H D Deve Gowda has got 8 per cent backing for the post of PM.
AAP impact in Karnataka
In Karnataka, 49 per cent respondents have heard of the AAP. Among them 24 per cent want the AAP to contest from their Lok Sabha seat and 14 per cent of them want to vote for it.
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