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New Delhi: India is likely to experience above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2024 monsoon season with La Nina conditions likely to set in by August-September, the IMD has said on Monday.

However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system.

Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events (more rain over a short period) are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods.

Based on data between 1951-2023, India experienced above-normal rainfall in the monsoon season on nine occasions when La Nina followed an El Nino event, India Meteorological Department chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told a press conference here.

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are predicted during the monsoon season. Also, the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is low. These conditions are favourable for the Indian southwest monsoon, he said.

Moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing at present. It is predicted to turn neutral by the time monsoon season commences. Thereafter, models suggest, La Lina conditions may set in by August-September, Mohapatra said.

India received "below-average" cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in 2023, an El Nino year. Before 2023, India recorded "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon season for four years in a row.

El Nino conditions -- periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.

Three large-scale climatic phenomena are considered for forecasting monsoon season rainfall.

The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which occurs due to differential warming of the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass, which also has an impact on the Indian monsoon through the differential heating of the landmass.

The southwest monsoon delivers about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, which is critical for the agriculture sector. Agriculture accounts for about 14 percent of the country's GDP.

The BJP has opened its account in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections. The party's candidate from Gujarat's Surat constituency, Mukesh Dalal, has won the polls as all his opponents are now out of the fray.

BJP's Mukesh Dalal elected unopposed from the Surat Lok Sabha seat after all other candidates withdrew from the contest, the party's Gujarat unit chief CR Paatil said today. Today was the deadline for withdrawing nominations.

The nominations of the Congress party's Surat candidate and his substitute were rejected by the returning officer over alleged discrepancies in paperwork, a development that the Congress called an attempt at "match-fixing".

"Surat has presented the first lotus to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. I congratulate our candidate for Surat Lok Sabha seat Mukesh Dalal for getting elected unopposed," Mr Paatil posted on the microblogging website X, referring to the BJP's election symbol.

Eight candidates - seven of them independents - and Pyarelal Bharti of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) withdrew their papers.

The nomination papers of the Congress's Surat candidate Nilesh Kumbhani was rejected on Sunday after the district returning officer Saurabh Parghi found discrepancies in the signatures of the proposers.

The nomination form of Suresh Padsala, the Congress's substitute candidate from Surat, was also found invalid.

The returning officer had said the four nomination forms submitted by the two Congress candidates did not appear genuine. The proposers, in their affidavits, had said they had not signed the forms themselves, the returning officer said in the order.

Congress lawyer Babu Mangukiya said the party will approach the high court and the Supreme Court for relief.

Congress leader Jairam Ramesh in a post on X said the Surat developments indicate "democracy is under threat". "Our elections, our democracy, Babasaheb Ambedkar's Constitution - all are under a generational threat. This is the most important election of our lifetime," Mr Ramesh said.

Mr Ramesh alleged the "distress" of micro, small and medium enterprise (MSME) owners and the business community in PM Modi's "Anyay Kaal" and their anger have "spooked the BJP so badly that they are attempting to match-fix the Surat Lok Sabha polls, which they have won consistently since the 1984 Lok Sabha elections."

Palakkad: Three voters from Palakkad, Malappuram and Alappuzha, and a polling agent in Kozhikode died in seperate incidents in Kerala on Friday.

A man collapsed and died after casting his vote at Vani Vilasini in Chunangad, Ottapalam here on Friday. The deceased Chandran (68) hailed from Modernkattil  in Chunangad. Though rushed to the Ottapalam taluk hopsital, he was declared dead on arrival. Palakkad had recorded a high temperature of 40 degree Celsius on Thursday.

A Madrassa teacher, who came home after voting, collapsed and died. The deceased Alikkannakkal Tharakkal Siddhique (63) was the first voter at the polling station in Vallikkanjiram School at Niramaruthur Grama Panchayat in Tirur.

Kakkazham Veiliparambu Somarajan (82), who voted and returned home from the Kakkazham SN VT High School in Alappuzha also collapsed and died. He was a voter from booth 138.

In another instance, a polling agent died after collapsing at a booth in Kuttichira, Kozhikode on Friday. Maliyekkal Anees (66), a retired KSEB engineer from Haluwa Bazaar, was LDF's polling agent at the 16th booth in Kuttichira Government Vocational Higher Secondary School. He collapsed while doing his duty in the polling booth by 8.30 am. Though rushed to the Government General Hospital, he died by 9.15am. He is survived by wife Adakkani Veettil Zereena, childrens  Fayis Ahammed, Fadhil Ahammed, Akhil Ahammed and Bilal Ahammed.

A man also died in bike accident en route to polling booth in Malappuram on Friday. The deceased is Saidu Haji (75) of Neduvan. The bike rammed a lorry near BM School in Parappanangadi.

Polling began at 7am in all 20 Lok Sabha constituencies in Kerala on Friday.