Modi’s ‘Stay at Home’ Call May Deepen India’s Economic Slowdown

News Network
March 21, 2020

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

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News Network
April 26,2024

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Voting has begun in 88 constituencies across 13 states and Union Territories amid a furious row between the Congress and the BJP over manifesto and inheritance tax. Election will be held on all seats of Kerala, a chunk of Rajasthan and UP.

Key points

Elections for the second phase will be held for 20 seats of Kerala, 14 seats in Karnataka, 13 in Rajasthan, eight each in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, seven in Madhya Pradesh, five each in Assam and Bihar, three each in Bengal and Chhattisgarh and one each in Jammu and Kashmir, Manipur and Tripura.

Earlier, 89 constituencies were expected to vote in this phase. But polling in Betul, Madhya Pradesh, was rescheduled after the death of a candidate from Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party. Betul will now vote in the third phase, due on May 7.

Key candidates for this round include the BJP's Union minister Rajeev Chandrashekhar  -- up against Congress' Shashi Tharoor from Thiruvananthapuram; actors Hema Malini, and Arun Govil from 1980s iconic serial Ramayan, senior BJP leader Tejasvi Surya and Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla,  Congress' Rahul Gandhi, KC Venugopal, Bhupesh Baghel. and Ashok Gehlot's son Vaibhav Gehlot.

For both BJP and the Opposition, the most crucial states in this phase will be Karnataka and Kerala. Karnataka is the only BJP bastion in the south, where the Congress won in the last assembly election. The party is hoping to do well amid concerns about delimitation and the disadvantage southern states could face after it.

Further south, the BJP is trying to break into the bipolar politics of Kerala. The party is hoping to open its account in the state having fielded Union ministers Rajiv Chandrasekhar and V. Muraleedharan. In Wayanand, a Congress bastion for over 20 years, it has fielded its state unit president K Surendran against Rahul Gandhi.

For the Opposition, Kerala is a big shining hope. Even though the Left and the Congress are competing against each other in the southern state, victory by either will add to the tally of the Opposition bloc INDIA. Kerala is one of the few states that have never sent a BJP member to parliament.

With north, west and northeast India saturated, the BJP is hoping to expand in the south and east in their quest for 370 seats. The party had won 303 seats in 2019, a majority of them from the Hindi heartland and bastions new and old, including Gujarat and the northeast.

The Congress, though, has claimed it would post a much better performance compared to 2019. After the first phase of the election, their claims have got louder, especially in Rajasthan and western Uttar Pradesh. Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Tejashwi Yadav has claimed INDIA will win all five seats in Bihar.  

The election is being held amid a bitter face-off between the Congress and the BJP. The row was sparked by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's comment that the Congress, if voted to power, will redistribute the personal wealth of people among "infiltrators" and won't even spare the mangalsutras of women. The Congress has questioned if the people had to fear for their wealth and mangalsutras in 55 years of the party's rule and accused the BJP of sidestepping issues that matter.

The next phase of election is due on May 7. The counting of votes will be held on June 4 – three days after the seventh and last phase of election on June 1.

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News Network
April 26,2024

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The Supreme Court of India on Friday, April 26, rejected pleas seeking 100% cross-verification of votes cast using EVMs with a Voter Verifiable Paper Audit Trail (VVPAT) and said “blindly distrusting” any aspect of the system can breed unwarranted scepticism.

A bench of Justices Sanjiv Khanna and Dipankar Datta delivered two concurring verdicts. It dismissed all the pleas in the matter, including those seeking to go back to ballot papers in elections.

An EVM comprises three units – the ballot unit, the control unit and the VVPAT. All three are embedded with microcontrollers with a burnt memory from the manufacturer. Currently, VVPATs are used in five booths per assembly constituency.

EVM VVPAT case: Supreme Court issues two directives

1.    Justice Khanna directed the Election Commission of India to seal and store units used to load symbols for 45 days after the symbols have been loaded to electronic voting machines in strong rooms.

2.    The Supreme Court also allowed engineers of the EVM manufacturers to verify the microcontroller of the machines after the declaration of the results at the request of candidates who stood second and third. The top court said the request for the verification of the microcontroller can be made within seven days of the declaration of the results after payment of fees.

Option for candidates to seek verification of EVM programmes

•    Candidates who secure second and third position in the results can request for the verification of burnt memory semicontroller in 5% of the EVMs per assembly segment in a Parliamentary constituency. The written request to be made within seven days of the declaration of the results.

•    *On receiving such a written request, the EVMs shall be checked and verified by a team of engineers from the manufacturer of the EVMs.

•    Candidates should identify the EVMs to be checked by a serial number of the polling booth.

•    Candidates and their representatives can be present at the time of the verification.

•    After verification, the district electoral officer should notify the authenticity of the burnt memory.

•    Expenses for the verification process, as notified by the ECI, should be borne by the candidate making the request.
What did the Supreme Court say?

•    "If EVM is found tampered during verification, fees paid by the candidates will be refunded," the bench said.

•    "While maintaining a balanced perspective is crucial in evaluating systems or institutions, blindly distrusting any aspect of the system can breed unwarranted scepticism...," Justice Datta said.

Who filed the petitions?

NGO Association for Democratic Reforms, one of the petitioners, had sought to reverse the poll panel's 2017 decision to replace the transparent glass on VVPAT machines with an opaque glass through which a voter can see the slip only when the light is on for seven seconds.

The petitioners have also sought the court's direction to revert to the old system of ballot papers.

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News Network
April 25,2024

Bengaluru, Apr 25: Former union minister C M Ibrahim, who was expelled from Janata Dal (Secular) for protesting against party’s alliance with BJP, has stressed on need for a third front not just at the national level, but also in Karnataka. 

Addressing a news conference in Bengaluru on Wednesday, he said he’s planning to form a third front in Karnataka along with Lingayat Seer Dingaleshwar Swami.

Ibrahim said that he will tour the state between April 27 and May 4 and that he would meet Dingaleshwar Swami on April 29. “There is a need for the third front in this country. We will try to establish a third front in association with the seer and we hope we will be successful in those efforts,” he said.

Expressing disappointment with the Congress for not doing enough to gain the full confidence of Muslims, Ibrahim said that Congress is concentrating only on certain communities for votes, and ignoring Muslims. 

“The Congress is not even caring for Muslims and Dalit votes. In some Muslim areas they did not even hold campaigns seeking votes and trying to convince the communities which never vote in their favour. I fear this may lead to low turnout and Congress may lose its vote base,” he opined.

Mentioning about guarantees on which Congress is strongly relying during this election, Ibrahim said, such things won’t work all the time. “Guarantees will not work anymore. Every election you need to give something new to the voters,” he added.

On Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s statement that Congress is trying to appease minorities for votes, Ibrahim requested both Congress and BJP parties not bring Muslims between them. “I request both parties. Leave us alone. Don’t make us sandwiches for your political sake. We are living with peace and hope even the Prime Minister will understand this,” Ibrahim added.

Launching a broadside against Prime Minister Deve Gowda, Ibrahim said, “Deve Gowda has sold his personality itself. Whatever I have told about JD(S) has come true. I pity, a former Prime Minister should not have come to this stage,” he said. 

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