PM Modi’s meeting with BSY prompts leadership talk in poll-bound Karnataka

New Delhi: India is likely to experience above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2024 monsoon season with La Nina conditions likely to set in by August-September, the IMD has said on Monday.

However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system.

Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events (more rain over a short period) are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods.

Based on data between 1951-2023, India experienced above-normal rainfall in the monsoon season on nine occasions when La Nina followed an El Nino event, India Meteorological Department chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told a press conference here.

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are predicted during the monsoon season. Also, the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is low. These conditions are favourable for the Indian southwest monsoon, he said.

Moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing at present. It is predicted to turn neutral by the time monsoon season commences. Thereafter, models suggest, La Lina conditions may set in by August-September, Mohapatra said.

India received "below-average" cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in 2023, an El Nino year. Before 2023, India recorded "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon season for four years in a row.

El Nino conditions -- periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.

Three large-scale climatic phenomena are considered for forecasting monsoon season rainfall.

The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which occurs due to differential warming of the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass, which also has an impact on the Indian monsoon through the differential heating of the landmass.

The southwest monsoon delivers about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, which is critical for the agriculture sector. Agriculture accounts for about 14 percent of the country's GDP.

New Delhi: Even though Prime Minister Narendra Modi's nasty election speech in Rajasthan's Banswara has triggered a nationwide controversy, the Election Commission has so far not taken any action. Meanwhile the Opposition bloc INDIA called the speech an attempt to divert attention from "real issues".

Addressing the people Banswara, on April 21, (Sunday) Modi openly attacked India’s Muslims, suggesting they were “infiltrators” and went on to claim that the opposition if elected would give away “mangalsutras” and “land” of those listening to his speech to them (Muslims). 

He referred to his immediate predecessor, Dr Manmohan Singh who was in office for 10 years as prime minister till 2014, and said, “Earlier, when his government was in power, he had said that Muslims have the first right on the country’s property, which means who will they collect this property and distribute it to – those who have more children, will distribute it to the infiltrators. Will the money of your hard work be given to the infiltrators? Do you approve of this?” 

Modi went on to say, “This Congress manifesto is saying that they will calculate the gold of the mothers and sisters, get information about it and then distribute it. Manmohan Singh’s government had said that Muslims have the first right on property. Brothers and sisters, these urban Naxal thoughts will not let even your mangalsutra escape, they will go this far.”

Narendra Modi and the BJP so far in their campaign trail have invoked religious faith, the Ram temple and Lord Ram multiple times, directly using it to call for people to vote for them. The Election Commission has been completely silent on the messaging via videos, tweets and other exhortations. 

Did Manmohan Singh really say that?

Modi’s claim that Dr Singh said that is not new and was refuted in 2006 itself by Singh’s PMO, when Modi had first made the false claim. The PMO had termed such remarks, “a deliberate and mischievous misinterpretation of what the Prime Minister said here yesterday at the meeting of the National Development Council, on fiscal priorities of the government.” It was termed “an avoidable controversy has been generated. The Prime Minister’s observations have also been quoted out of context in some sections of the electronic media, fuelling a baseless controversy.”

The full text of the paragraph in which the Prime Minister referred to the issue of minority empowerment to clarify the matter is as follows:

“I believe our collective priorities are clear: agriculture, irrigation and water resources, health, education, critical investment in rural infrastructure, and the essential public investment needs of general infrastructure, along with programmes for the upliftment of SC/STs, other backward classes, minorities and women and children. The component plans for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes will need to be revitalized. We will have to devise innovative plans to ensure that minorities, particularly the Muslim minority, are empowered to share equitably in the fruits of development. They must have the first claim on resources. The Centre has a myriad other responsibilities whose demands will have to be fitted within the over-all resource availability.”

The PMO’s clarification said. “it will be seen from the above that the Prime Minister’s reference to “first claim on resources” refers to all the “priority” areas listed above, including programmes for the upliftment of SCs, STs, OBCs, women and children and minorities.

Opposition reacts

Chairman, Media and Publicity department of the Congress, Pawan Khera said in a video message in a post, “We challenge the Prime Minister to show us if the word Hindu or Muslim is written anywhere in our manifesto. This kind of lightness is there in your mentality, in your political values. We have talked about justice for the youth, women, farmers, tribals, middle class and workers. Do you object to this as well?”

Khera was referring to earlier mistruths uttered by Modi about the “Muslim League” having influenced the Congress manifesto.

In Jharkhand’s Ranchi at an opposition rally, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge is reported to have said by BBC Hindi, “If democracy and the Constitution end in the country, then the people will have nothing left. Babasaheb Ambedkar ji and Jawaharlal Nehru ji gave equal voting rights to everyone, due to which all classes got respect. But Narendra Modi wants to snatch their rights from the poor.”

B.V. Srinivas termed it as unfortunate that “this person is the Prime Minister of this country, and an even bigger tragedy is that the Election Commission of India is no longer alive.” He said that “due to the frustration of impending defeat, the Prime Minister of India is openly sowing the seeds of hatred, he is polarising by misquoting Manmohan Singh’s 18-year-old incomplete statement, But the Election Commission (Modi ka parivar) is bowing down.”

Modi’s past hate-speech

Modi, in his 12-year tenure as chief minister of Gujarat was known to have made speeches targeting the state’s minority Muslim community brazenly, terming camps where Muslims were forced to stay in after communal violence gripped the state in 2002. Frontline covered him on his Gujarat Gaurav Yatra started shortly after the violence, at a rally at Becharaji in Mehsana district in northern Gujarat, when he said, “What should we do? Run relief camps for them? Do we want to open baby-producing centres? But for certain people that means hum paanch, hamare pachees.” 

In 2017 it was time again for direct speech targeting Muslims when in February he spoke of ‘shamshaan versus kabristan’ campaigning for UP and then for Gujarat elections when the BJP had its worst performance this millennium, in a speech at Palanpur on December 10, 2017 Modi invoked a “secret meeting” to get Pakistan to fix Gujarat’s assembly polls. He said that a meeting was held at Congress leader Mani Shankar Aiyar’s residence, attended by former PM Manmohan Singh, former Vice-President Hamid Ansari, former Army Chief Deepak Kapoor and distinguished diplomats to execute the plot. Modi’s PMO faced embarrassment when in response to an RTI filed by the Congress, his office was forced to say that Modi’s campaign speech could have been based on an “informal input”.

In the only question he has answered as part of a press conference with Joe Biden on June 22, 2023, Modi was asked, “India has long prided itself as the world’s largest democracy, but there are many human rights groups who say that your government has discriminated against religious minorities and sought to silence its critics.  As you stand here in the East Room of the White House, where so many world leaders have made commitments to protecting democracy, what steps are you and your government willing to take to improve the rights of Muslims and other minorities in your country and to uphold free speech?”

In response Modi appeared visibly frazzled and denied all charges. “I’m actually really surprised that people say so.  And so, people don’t say it.  Indeed, India is a democracy.” 

The journalist was trolled online by BJP leaders and supporters to such an extent that the White House had to come out and defend her and strongly denounce the trolling and abuse.

Bengaluru: The Congress and BJP will lock horns on the electoral battleground again, in less than a year, in Karnataka as the stage is set for voting in the first phase in 14 Lok Sabha seats on Friday.

It's going to be a straight fight between the ruling Congress and the BJP-JD(S) combine unlike the Assembly elections in May last year which witnessed a triangular contest among the three parties.

The state has a total of 28 Lok Sabha constituencies. The second phase of polling in the remaining 14 seats is on May seven.

A total of 247 candidates -- 226 men and 21 women -- are in the fray for the first phase in most of the southern and coastal districts.

More than 2.88 crore voters are eligible to exercise their franchise in 30,602 polling stations where polling will take place between 7 am to 6 pm.

While the Congress is contesting in all 14 seats, BJP has fielded nominees in 11 and its alliance partner JD(S), which joined the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in three -- Hassan, Mandya and Kolar.

Besides the three, the segments where elections will be held on Friday are: Udupi-Chikmagalur, Dakshina Kannada, Chitradurga, Tumkur, Mysore, Chamarajanagar, Bangalore Rural, Bangalore North, Bangalore Central, Bangalore South and Chikkballapur.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Congress and JD(S), which were in alliance and ruling the state then, had secured just one seat each in these 14 segments. The BJP had won in 11 and ensured the victory of a party supported independent candidate in Mandya.

Having scored a thumping victory in the Assembly elections, the Congress now appears determined to put up a strong show.

Karnataka is the most important state for the BJP in south India as it's only here that it had held power in the past. 'Its alliance partner JD(S) is fighting to remain politically relevant, after the Assembly poll drubbing,' a political analyst said.

The Old Mysore region is the Vokkaliga heartland and parts of it have been the traditional bastion of the JDS.  However, the current elections are a battle for survival for JDS.

According to Karnataka Chief Electoral Officer Manoj Kumar Meena, 1.4 lakh polling officials will be on duty for the first phase.

Besides them, 5,000 micro-observers, 50,000 civil police personnel, 65 companies of Central Parliamentary Force and State Armed Police force of other States will also be deployed for security.

All the 2,829 polling stations of Bangalore Rural parliamentary constituency will be webcast, Meena said.

'This is as per the request of our returning officers and observers; so we have given more than double the Central parliamentary force for Bangalore Rural constituency. Seven companies of Central paramilitary forces have been inducted at the constituency since April 22,' he told reporters on Wednesday.

In fact, out of the total 30,602 polling stations in the first phase, 19,701 will be webcast, and 1,370 covered via CCTVs, he said.

Chikkaballapur has a maximum number of 29 candidates, followed by 24 in Bangalore Central, and Dakshina Kannada has the least number - nine.

JD(S) leader H D Kumaraswamy from Mandya, his brother-in-law and noted cardiologist C N Manjunath from Bangalore Rural on a BJP ticket, erstwhile Mysuru royal family scion Yaduveer Krishnadatta Chamaraja Wadiyar from Mysore, also from the BJP, and Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivakumar's brother and MP D K Suresh of Congress from Bangalore Rural, are among the prominent candidates in the fray in the first phase.

Also in the fray are BJP MP Tejasvi Surya from Bangalore South against Minister Ramalinga Reddy's daughter Sowmya Reddy of Congress, Union Minister Shobha Karandlaje on BJP ticket from Bangalore North against former IIM Bangalore professor M V Rajeev Gowda of Congress.

The Congress' performance in the elections, especially in the first phase which covers almost all Vokkaliga-dominated districts, is being seen as a big test of sorts for its state unit chief Shivakumar, who has made no secret of his ambition to become chief minister, amid speculations of change in guard mid-way of the Assembly term.

Stakes are also high for Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, as victory in particular in his home turf—Mysore and Chamarajanagar—is seen as key for strengthening hands, analysts say.

For the JD(S) and its state chief Kumaraswamy, the task is cut out -- to prove that the regional party is still a force to reckon with, particularly in the Vokkaliga dominated Old Mysuru or South Karnataka region.

Both Shivakumar and Kumaraswamy are Vokkaligas, and are engaged in a fierce turf war to consolidate their clout over the dominant community.

It is also seen as a kind of a 'litmus test' for state BJP president B Y Vijayendra, who has the onerous task of helping the party retain its supremacy in the Lok Sabha elections.

Ensuring a BJP sweep is paramount for the son of veteran leader B S Yediyurappa, to consolidate his position and silence critics who have questioned his selection for the post, overlooking seniors and seasoned hands.

The ruling Congress is mostly banking on the implementation of its populist five guarantee schemes. The BJP and JD(S) seem to be leveraging the 'Modi factor' to the hilt.