Weak rupee makes gold smuggling, bets attractive

September 15, 2012

New Delhi, September 15: When 26-year-old Abdul Salam from Dubai was arrested at Mumbai airport last month with 156 gold chains concealed in his shoes, he was trying to land an irresistible windfall. Gold prices are rising faster in India than overseas. And this has brought back a profit opportunity, legal, not-quite-legal and illegal.

Gold arbitrage is promising punters as much as 12% annual return on investment. For some, it's almost Haji Mastan time again. But here's a difference - the infamous gold smuggler arbitraged on government ban on gold imports, today's shadier punters rely on the rupee's weakness against the dollar and the impact a weak rupee has on local gold prices.

There has been a 10-fold increase in the number of gold smuggling cases in recent months. Between April and June this year, authorities impounded gold worth 940 crore in some 200 cases of smuggling, up 272% over the same period last year, finance ministry data shows.

Smugglers make money if they can successfully avoid paying duties - 4% customs duty and other taxes, which add 5%-plus to the landed cost of gold.

Arbitraging on gold in less risky ways is possible - but complicated. The incentives, for all kinds of punters, is however simple to understand.

Take this price comparison. On September 10, 2011, the spot London price was $1,857/ounce. The price on MCX in Mumbai was 28,152/10 gms. On September 10, 2012, the spot London price was $1,736. The price on MCX was 32,035. In other words, while gold overseas dropped 6.5% in last one year, gold on MCX has risen almost 14%.

Why? Last September, the dollar was trading at 46.48. Now, the exchange rate is 55.36. It's this near- 20% depreciation of the rupee that has pushed up local gold prices.

The thumb rule is that every one rupee rise or fall in the exchange rate leads to a movement of 500-550 per 10 gm in the same direction on MCX. Since the rupee is expected to further weaken against the dollar as companies scramble to pay back overseas loans in the next couple of months, gold's faster rise in India is virtually guaranteed for the rest of the year.

"Normally international gold prices rise on the back of a weakening dollar. Currently, while the dollar's weakness continues to push up gold, the dollar has strengthened against the rupee. That is why Indian prices are higher than the world market. It is a pure currency play," says analyst Thiagarajan Gnanasekar at CommTrendz Research and Fund Management.

How does a canny investor - assuming he's not keen on smuggling - take advantage of this currency play?

When gold lands legally in India, it attracts taxes that add up to more than 5% (4% customs duty and local taxes). After paying that duty, there's no real possibility of arbitrage. That's why NRIs, allowed to legally import 1 kg gold per head, can't play the local market.

Theoretically, an Indian investor can buy a gold contract on New York Mercantile Exchange's Comex division, hedge the rupee against the dollar, and sell an equivalent contract on the MCX, says Ashok Mittal, CEO, Emkay Commotrade, a brokerage.

This can be a high risk strategy. You have to pay some cash upfront as margin money in both MCX and Comex along with the brokerage fees. There is the cost of hedging the rupee against the dollar.

gold


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News Network
December 4,2025

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Domestic carrier IndiGo has cancelled over 180 flights from three major airports — Mumbai, Delhi and Bengaluru — on Thursday, December 4, as the airline struggles to secure the required crew to operate its flights in the wake of new flight-duty and rest-period norms for pilots.

While the number of cancellations at Mumbai airport stands at 86 (41 arrivals and 45 departures) for the day, at Bengaluru, 73 flights have been cancelled, including 41 arrivals, according to a PTI report that quoted sources.

"IndiGo cancelled over 180 flights on Thursday at three airports-Mumbai, Delhi and Bengaluru," the source told the news agency.

Besides, it had cancelled as many as 33 flights at Delhi airport for Thursday, the source said, adding, "The number of cancellations is expected to be higher by the end of the day."

The Gurugram-based airline's On-Time Performance (OTP) nosedived to 19.7 per cent at six key airports — Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata, Bengaluru and Hyderabad — on December 3, as it struggled to get the required crew to operate its services, down from almost half of December 2, when it was 35 per cent.

"IndiGo has been facing acute crew shortage since the implementation of the second phase of the FDTL (Flight Duty Time Limitations) norms, leading to cancellations and huge delays in its operations across the airports," a source had told PTI on Wednesday.

Chaos continued at several major airports for the third day on Thursday because of the cancellations.

A spokesperson for the Kempegowda International Airport (KIA) in Bengaluru said that 73 IndiGo flights had been cancelled on Thursday.

At least 150 flights were cancelled and dozens of others delayed on Wednesday, airport sources said, leaving thousands of travellers stranded, according to news agency Reuters.

The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) has said it is investigating IndiGo flight disruptions and has asked the airline to submit the reasons for the current situation, as well as its plans to reduce flight cancellations and delays.

It may be mentioned here that the pilots' body, Federation of Indian Pilots (FIP), has alleged that IndiGo, despite getting a two-year preparatory window before the full implementation of new flight duty and rest period norms for cockpit crew, "inexplicably" adopted a "hiring freeze".

The FIP said it has urged the safety regulator, the DGCA, not to approve airlines' seasonal flight schedules unless they have adequate staff to operate their services "safely and reliably" in accordance with the New Flight Duty Time Limitations (FDTL) norms.

In a letter to the DGCA late on Wednesday, the FIP urged the DGCA to consider re-evaluating and reallocating slots to other airlines, which have the capacity to operate them without disruption during the peak holiday and fog season if IndiGo continues to "fail in delivering on its commitments to passengers due to its own avoidable staffing shortages."

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News Network
December 6,2025

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New Delhi: IndiGo, India’s largest airline, faced major operational turbulence this week after failing to prepare for new pilot-fatigue regulations issued by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA). The stricter rules—designed to improve flight safety—took effect in phases through 2024, with the latest implementation on November 1. IndiGo has acknowledged that inadequate roster planning led to widespread cancellations and delays.

Below are the key DGCA rules that affected IndiGo’s operations:

1. Longer Mandatory Weekly Rest

Weekly rest for pilots has been increased from 36 hours to 48 hours.

The government says the extended break is essential to curb cumulative fatigue. This rule remains in force despite the current crisis.

2. Cap on Night Landings

Pilots can now perform only two night landings per week—a steep reduction from the earlier limit of six.

Night hours, defined as midnight to early morning, are considered the least alert period for pilots.

Given the disruptions, this rule has been temporarily relaxed for IndiGo until February 10.

3. Reduced Maximum Night Flight Duty

Flight duty that stretches into the night is now capped at 10 hours.

This measure has also been kept on hold for IndiGo until February 10 to stabilize operations.

4. Weekly Rest Cannot Be Replaced With Personal Leave

Airlines can no longer count a pilot’s personal leave as part of the mandatory 48-hour rest.

Pilots say this closes a loophole that previously reduced actual rest time.

Currently, all airlines are exempt from this rule to normalise travel.

5. Mandatory Fatigue Monitoring

Airlines must submit quarterly fatigue reports along with corrective actions to DGCA.

This system aims to create a transparent fatigue-tracking framework across the industry.

The DGCA has stressed that these rules were crafted to strengthen flight safety and align India with global fatigue-management standards. The temporary relaxations are expected to remain until February 2025, giving IndiGo time to stabilise its schedules and restore normal air travel.

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News Network
December 4,2025

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Angry outbursts, long queues, and desperate appeals filled airports across India today as IndiGo grappled with a severe operational breakdown. Hundreds of flights have been cancelled or delayed, leaving thousands of passengers stranded through the night and forcing many to spend long hours at helpdesks.

Social media was flooded with videos of fliers pleading for assistance, accusing the airline of misleading updates, and demanding accommodation after being stuck for 10 to 12 hours at airports such as Hyderabad and Bengaluru.

What Triggered the Meltdown?

IndiGo has attributed the widespread disruption to “a multitude of unforeseen operational challenges.” These include:

•    Minor technology glitches
•    Winter-season schedule adjustments
•    Bad weather
•    Congestion in the aviation network
•    New crew rostering rules (Flight Duty Time Limitations or FDTL)

Among these, the most disruptive has been the implementation of the updated FDTL norms introduced by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) in January 2024.

These rules were designed to reduce pilot fatigue and improve passenger safety. Key changes include:

•    Longer weekly rest periods for flight crew
•    A revised definition of “night,” extending it by an extra hour
•    Tighter caps on flight duty timing and night landings
•    Cutting night shifts for pilots and crew from six per roster cycle to just two

Once these norms became fully enforceable, airlines were required to overhaul rosters well in advance. For IndiGo, this triggered a sudden shortage of crew available for duty, leading to cascading delays and cancellations.

Why IndiGo Was Hit the Hardest

IndiGo is India’s largest airline by a wide margin, operating over 2,200 flights daily. That’s roughly double the number operated by Air India.

When an airline of this size experiences even a 10–20% disruption, it translates to 200–400 flights being delayed or grounded — producing massive spillover effects across the country.

IndiGo also relies heavily on high-frequency overnight operations, a model typical of low-cost carriers that aim to maximise aircraft utilisation and reduce downtime. The stricter FDTL norms clash with these overnight-heavy schedules, forcing the airline to pull back services.

Aviation bodies have also criticised IndiGo’s preparedness. The Airline Pilots' Association of India (ALPA) said airlines were given a two-year window to plan for the new rules but “started preparing rather late.” IndiGo, it said, failed to rebuild crew rosters 15 days in advance as required.

The Federation of Indian Pilots (FIP) went further, calling the crisis the result of IndiGo’s “prolonged and unorthodox lean manpower strategy,” and alleging that the airline adopted a hiring freeze even as it knew the new rules would require more careful staffing.

How Many Flights Are Affected?

In the past 48 hours, over 300 flights have been cancelled. At least 100 more are expected to be cancelled today.

City-wise impact:

•    Hyderabad: 33 expected cancellations; several fliers stranded overnight
•    Bengaluru: over 70 expected cancellations
•    Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata: widespread delays and missed connections

Passengers shared distressing accounts online.

One customer at Hyderabad airport said they waited from 6 PM to 9 AM with “no action taken” regarding their delayed Pune flight. Another said IndiGo repeatedly told them the crew was “arriving soon,” only for the delay to stretch over 12 hours.

IndiGo has apologised for the disruption and promised that operations will stabilise within 48 hours, adding that “calibrated adjustments” are being made to contain the chaos.

What Should Passengers Do Now?

For those flying in the next few days, especially with IndiGo, here are key precautions:

1. Keep Checking Flight Status
Monitor your flight closely before leaving for the airport, as delays may be announced last-minute.

2. Arrive Early
Expect long queues at counters and security due to crowding and rescheduling.

3. Carry Essentials
Pack snacks, water, basic medicines, chargers, and items for children or senior citizens. Extended waiting times should be anticipated.

4. Use Flexible Booking Options
If you booked tickets with a free-date-change or cancellation option, consider using them.
If you haven’t booked yet, prefer refundable or flexible fares, or even consider alternate airlines.

5. Follow IndiGo’s Updates
Keep an eye on IndiGo’s official social media channels and contact customer support for rebooking and refund queries.

What Needs to Change?

Pilot groups have raised concerns not just about staffing but also the planning practices behind it.
The Federation of Indian Pilots accused IndiGo of:

•    Imposing an unexplained hiring freeze despite knowing the FDTL changes were coming
•    Entering non-poaching agreements that limited talent movement
•    Keeping pilot pay frozen
•    Underestimating the need to restructure operations in advance

They have urged DGCA to approve seasonal schedules only after airlines prove they have adequate pilot strength under the new norms.

ALPA also warned that some airlines might be using the delays as an “immature pressure tactic” to push DGCA for relaxations in the new rules — which, if granted, could compromise the very safety standards the norms were meant to protect.

Both pilot bodies stressed that no exemption should dilute safety, and any deviations should be based solely on scientific risk assessment.

Is a Solution in Sight?

While IndiGo says normalcy will return within two days, aviation experts believe that fully stabilising operations could take longer, depending on how quickly the airline can:
•    Re-align rosters
•    Mobilise rested crew
•    Boost staffing
•    Adjust its winter schedule to match regulatory requirements
Passengers are advised to remain prepared for continued delays over the next few days as the airline works through its backlog. 

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