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New Delhi: India is likely to experience above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2024 monsoon season with La Nina conditions likely to set in by August-September, the IMD has said on Monday.

However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system.

Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events (more rain over a short period) are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods.

Based on data between 1951-2023, India experienced above-normal rainfall in the monsoon season on nine occasions when La Nina followed an El Nino event, India Meteorological Department chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told a press conference here.

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are predicted during the monsoon season. Also, the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is low. These conditions are favourable for the Indian southwest monsoon, he said.

Moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing at present. It is predicted to turn neutral by the time monsoon season commences. Thereafter, models suggest, La Lina conditions may set in by August-September, Mohapatra said.

India received "below-average" cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in 2023, an El Nino year. Before 2023, India recorded "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon season for four years in a row.

El Nino conditions -- periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.

Three large-scale climatic phenomena are considered for forecasting monsoon season rainfall.

The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which occurs due to differential warming of the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass, which also has an impact on the Indian monsoon through the differential heating of the landmass.

The southwest monsoon delivers about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, which is critical for the agriculture sector. Agriculture accounts for about 14 percent of the country's GDP.

Kolkata: Defence Minister Rajnath Singh or Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari could have been the prime minister, said Trinamool Congress supremo and West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee, subtly taking a dig at the Bharatiya Janata Party leaders relegated to the second rung of the organisational echelons.

Banerjee’s nephew and the TMC general secretary Abhishek Banerjee, on the other hand, attempted to stoke trouble within the BJP’s unit in West Bengal, saying that at least 10 more state legislators of the saffron party were keen to join his party and in touch with him.

"You (Rajnath Singh) are surviving at the mercy of Modi (Prime Minister Narendra Modi). You are saluting Modi daily to save your chair. You or Nitin Gadkari could have been the PM (prime minister) today," the TMC supremo said in an election rally at Ausgram in Bolpur Lok Sabha constituency on Wednesday. "There would have been no problem...at least there would have been a gentleman in the chair who knows minimum courtesy," she added.

Banerjee was responding to Singh’s diatribe against herself and the TMC government led by her. The defence minister, who had addressed an election rally in Murshidabad on Sunday, had criticised the TMC government for alleged corruption and anarchy in West Bengal.

Singh had referred to the attacks on the Enforcement Directorate officials on January 5 during a raid at the residence of the TMC leader Sheikh Shahjahan at Sandeshkhali in North 24 Parganas district of the state. It was followed by an agitation by local women protesting against atrocities by Shahjahan and his aides known to be owing allegiance to the TMC.

Singh questioned how the state government, led by a woman as the chief minister, could allow such atrocities on women to take place. He went on to say that Banerjee had lost all ‘mamata’ (affection and compassion) for people.

Banerjee shared a cordial relationship with Singh since the days when they both were ministers in the central government led by then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Singh avoided personally criticising Banerjee in the past.

He, however, went ballistic against Banerjee on Sunday, triggering a strong response from the TMC supremo on Wednesday.

"The BJP is trying to get into the game of breaking parties, but they can't win in it. They poached two of our MPs, and we replied by taking two of their MPs, Arjun Singh and Babul Supriyo. Recently, by using ED raids, they inducted Tapas Ray. At least 10 top leaders of the BJP are in the queue to join the TMC," Abhishek said in another election rally in Murshidabad on Wednesday.

New Delhi:  Twenty-nine Maoists, including a senior rebel leader - Shankar Rao, who had a bounty of ₹ 25 lakh on his head - were killed by security forces during an encounter in Chhattisgarh's Kanker district on Tuesday afternoon. A huge quantity of weapons, including Ak-47 and INSAS rifles, were recovered. 

Three security personnel were injured in the gunfight, which took place in forests near the village of Binagunda after a joint team of District Reserve Guard and Border Security Force were attacked.

Two of the three injured are from the BSF. Their condition is stable but the third - from the DRG - is in critical care. All three received treatment at a local hospital and are to be shifted to a larger facility.

Sources said the fighting began at around 2 PM, when a joint DRG-BSF team was conducting an anti-Maoist operation. The DRG was set up in in 2008 to combat Maoist activities in the state, and the Border Security Force has been deployed extensively in the area to for counter-insurgency ops.

There was another encounter in the district last month, in which two people - a Maoist and a cop - were killed, and security forces recovered a gun, some explosives, and other incriminating materials.

Personnel from the DRG and Bastar Fighters, both units of the state police force, with the Border Security Force, were involved in that operation, officials told news agency PTI. The patrolling team was cordoning off a forested area when fired on indiscriminately, leading to the gun battle.

In November last year, while the state was voting in the first phase of an Assembly election, a gunfight broke out between security forces and Maoist rebels in the same district.

An Ak-47 rifle was recovered from the encounter site.

On the same day, while polling was taking place, Maoists fired at DRG personnel deployed near a polling station in Banda in Dantewada district.