World Bank lowers India's growth forecast

Agencies
October 11, 2017

Washington, Oct 11: India's GDP may slow from 8.6 per cent in 2015 to 7.0 per cent in 2017 because of disruptions by demonetisation and the GST, the World Bank has forecast and warned that subdued private investment due to internal bottlenecks could put downside pressures on the country's potential growth.

The International Monetary Fund yesterday also lowered India's growth projection to 6.7 per cent in 2017, 0.5 percentage points less than its previous two forecasts and slower than China's 6.8 per cent.

India's economic momentum has been affected by disruptions from the withdrawal of banknotes and uncertainties around the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the World Bank said in its South Asia Economic Focus, a biannual economic update.

As a result, growth is expected to slow from 8.6 per cent in 2015 to 7.0 per cent in 2017. Sound policies around balancing public spending with private investment could accelerate growth to 7.3 per cent by 2018, it said.

While sustained growth is expected to translate to continued poverty reduction, more focus could be made to help benefit the informal economy more, said the report released here ahead of the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

A slowdown in India's growth rate, the bank said, has also affected the growth rate of South Asia. As a result, South Asia has fallen to second place after East Asia and the Pacific.

"Real GDP growth slowed to 7.1 per cent in 2016, from 8 per cent in 15/16, and further to 5.7 per cent in Q1 FY2017," it said.

On the one hand, public and private consumption gained pace: after implementation of the 7th central pay commission recommendations; and due to the revival in rural demand after normal monsoon and agricultural impetus. On the other hand, overall demand slowed as public investments started to wane.

According to the bank, the GST is expected to disrupt economic activity in early 2018, but the momentum may pick-up.

Evidence suggests that post-GST, manufacturing and services contracted sharply, it said.

The growth activity is expected to stabilise within a quarter maintaining the annual GDP growth at 7.0 per cent in 2018.

Growth is projected to increase gradually to 7.4 per cent by 2020, underpinned by a recovery in private investments, which are expected to be crowded-in by the recent increase in public capex and an improvement in the investment climate (partly due to the passage of the GST and Bankruptcy Code, and measures to attract the FDI), the bank report said.

The most substantial medium-term risks are associated with private investment recovery, which continues to face several domestic impediments such as corporate debt overhang, regulatory and policy challenges, along with the risk of an imminent increase in US interest rates, it said.

"If the internal bottlenecks are not alleviated, subdued private investment would put downside pressures on India's potential growth," the report said. Downside risks to the global economy and accordingly to export growth and capital flows are also substantial given the possibility of monetary policy normalisation in the USA and risks of protectionism, it added.

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News Network
May 12,2024

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Israeli military tanks have started to go deeper into the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza as part of a ground offensive months after claiming Hamas had been “dismantled” in the area.

Israeli forces are “carpet-bombing” the eastern areas of Jabalia refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip, killing and wounding several Palestinians, Al-Jazeara reported citing local sources on Sunday.

Israeli military tanks have advanced further into the Jabalia refugee camp, crossing Salah al-Din Street amidst ongoing battles with Hamas fighters, reports added.

Media quoted eyewitnesses as saying that the tanks are surrounding evacuation centers and residential buildings in the densely populated area, leading to mass evacuations and displacement towards the western part of Gaza City.

Also, Israeli drones targeted ambulances near the clinic run by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) in Jabalia, according to Mahmoud Basal, the spokesperson for the civil defense directorate in Gaza.

Basal stated that emergency crews in Rafah, al-Zaytounm, al-Sabra, and Jabalia have been inundated with distress calls, confirming that these areas were subjected to overnight bombardment.

Shortage of oxygen for patients

Imad Abu Zayda, an emergency doctor in Jabalia, warned of the critical conditions prevailing there due to the recent Israeli aggression in the area.  

“No light due to the lack of fuel and there’s no medical supplement available as Israel has expanded their operation in the area. We have no oxygen to give to patients,” he said.

He added that the majority of those injured are children and women, and the medical team is grappling with limited resources to provide essential care.

All hospitals in the northern Gaza Strip are now out of service, following a warning from the UN about the risk of running out of fuel in hospitals across the region.

Israel’s closure of the Rafah crossing has also prevented aid trucks from entering the area since May 5.

The Jabalia refugee camp, established in 1948 to accommodate Palestinians who were displaced after the Nakba, or catastrophe, which refers to the ethnic cleansing of Palestine in 1948, has become the most densely populated refugee camp in the Gaza Strip.

With over 750,000 Palestinians forcefully displaced, this camp stands as a testament to the birth of Israel in 1948.

Since the start of the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip on October 7, Israeli forces carried out several attacks on Jabilia camp, leaving it in ruins by intense bombardment.

In early February, Israeli forces withdrew from the camp claiming it had destroyed Hamas as a fighting force in the northern areas.

On Saturday, the Israeli military ordered residents of the Jabalia Refugee Camp to evacuate “immediately”, as it prepares to launch military operations against Hamas.

However, the displaced residents have no place to seek refuge, as the UN reports a severe famine in the region.

Since the start of the offensive, the Tel Aviv regime has killed more than 34,971 Palestinians and injured more than 78,641 others, mostly women and children.

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News Network
May 20,2024

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Hopes are fading that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and his foreign minister have survived a helicopter crash in mountainous terrain and icy weather, an Iranian official said on Monday after search teams located the wreckage.

"President Raisi's helicopter was completely burned in the crash ... unfortunately, all passengers are feared dead," the official told Reuters.

Rescue teams fought blizzards and difficult terrain through the night to reach the wreckage in East Azerbaijan province in the early hours of Monday.

“We can see the wreckage and the situation does not look good,” the head of Iran’s Red Crescent, Pirhossein Kolivand, told state TV.

Raisi, 63, was elected president in 2021, and since taking office has ordered a tightening of morality laws, overseen a crackdown US-Israel backed anti-government protests and pushed hard in nuclear talks with world powers.

A Turkish drone identified a source of heat suspected to be the helicopter's wreckage and had shared the coordinates of the possible crash site with Iranian authorities, Anadolu news agency said earlier on X.

State news agency IRNA said Raisi was flying in a US-made Bell 212 helicopter.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds ultimate power with a final say on foreign policy and Iran's nuclear programme, sought to reassure Iranians, saying there would be no disruption to state affairs.

The chief of staff of Iran's army ordered all resources of the army and the elite Revolutionary Guards to be put to use in search and rescue operations.

Earlier, the national broadcaster had stopped all regular programming to show prayers being held for Raisi across the country.

In the early hours of Monday, it showed a rescue team, wearing bright jackets and head torches, huddled around a GPS device as they searched a pitch-black mountainside on foot in a blizzard.

“We are thoroughly searching every inch of the general area of the crash," state media quoted a regional army commander as saying. "The area has very cold, rainy, and foggy weather conditions. The rain is gradually turning into snow."

Several countries expressed concern and offered assistance in any rescue.

The White House said U.S. President Joe Biden had been briefed on reports about the crash. China said it was deeply concerned. The European Union offered emergency satellite mapping technology.

Possible successor to Khamenei

The crash comes at a time of growing dissent within Iran over an array of political, social and economic crises. Iran's clerical rulers face international pressure over Tehran's disputed nuclear programme and its deepening military ties with Russia during the war in Ukraine.

Since Iran’s open support to Hamas’ resistance against Israeli aggression, US and Israel have harshly criticised the President Raisi. 

In Iran's dual political system, split between the clerical establishment and the government, it is Raisi's 85-year-old mentor Khamenei, supreme leader since 1989, who holds decision-making power on all major policies.

For years many have seen Raisi as a strong contender to succeed Khamenei, who has endorsed Raisi's main policies. Raisi's victory in 2021 elections brought all branches of power under the control of revolutionaries, after eight years when the presidency had been held by pragmatist Hassan Rouhani and a nuclear deal negotiated with powers including Washington.

Raisi had been at the Azerbaijani border on Sunday to inaugurate the Qiz-Qalasi Dam, a joint project. Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev, who said he had bid a "friendly farewell" to Raisi earlier in the day, offered assistance in the rescue.

The chopper that was transporting President Raeisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and their companions encountered some difficulties and was forced to make a "hard landing".

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News Network
May 6,2024

Bengaluru, May 6: Arrested JD-S MLA H.D. Revanna, the son of former PM H.D. Deve Gowda, on Sunday said that there is no evidence against him in the sex video scandal kidnapping case and that it was a "conspiracy" against him.

Talking to the media, while being taken for a medical test before being produced in front of a court here, Revanna stated that a kidnapping case had been lodged against him though he does not have 'one black mark' against him in his entire career of 40 years.

"Without evidence, I have been targeted... All allegations against me are false. My arrest has been made out of ill intention," he claimed.

"The case was lodged on April 28, then, they did not have any evidence. Later, the fake evidence was created on May 2 and I was fixed," he alleged.

Home Minister Dr G. Parameshwara stated on Sunday that a Blue Corner notice has already been issued against Revanna's son and MP Prajwal Revanna, the prime accused in the sex video scandal, as he is believed to be abroad.

"The Interpol will communicate to all nations and he will be located. Once he is located, the SIT will take a call on how he should be secured and brought back to India," he added.

Revanna was arrested on Saturday on charges of kidnapping one of the victims of the sex video scandal.

Parameshwara further maintained that the arrest of Revanna has saddened JD-S leaders and if action was not taken, the SIT would be blamed too.

Meanwhile, Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge refused to comment on the alleged sex video scandal involving Prajwal Revanna.

About Revanna's arrest, he said that the SIT would initiate action as per the law. "Those indulging in such acts must be taught a lesson and justice should be given to the families of victims. No one can escape the law. No one should use this case politically," he stated.

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