Indian economy shrank 9.6% in 2020-21, can rise with vaccine to 5.4% next fiscal: World Bank

Agencies
January 6, 2021

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Washington, Jan 6: India's economy battered by the Covid-19 pandemic is forecast to crater by 9.6 per cent during the current financial year but can recover by 5.4 per cent next financial year if there is wide vaccination against the disease and it is contained, the World Bank reported on Tuesday.

The Bank's Global Economic Prospects Report said that the optimistic forecast for 2021-22 "assumes that a vaccine will be distributed on a large scale in the region starting the second half of 2021 and that there is no widespread resurgence in infections".

About the economy's contraction, the report said, "In India, the pandemic hit the economy at a time when growth was already decelerating" and "the estimated contraction of the economy by 9.6 per cent during 2020-21 reflects "a sharp drop in household spending and private investment".

Looking ahead, the report said that India's recovery would be constrained by the weak financial sector.

The 5.4 per cent growth rate forecast for in 2021-22 -- a "rebound from a low base" -- would be "offset by muted private investment growth given financial sector weaknesses", the report said noting that "in the financial sector, non-performing loans were already high before the pandemic".

In the South Asia region, the Bank said that the economy overall fell by 6.7 per cent in 2020 "reflecting the effects of the pandemic and nationwide lockdowns, particularly in Bangladesh and India".

But it added, "Activity rebounded in the second half of last year, led by industrial production, as initial stringent lockdowns were eased."

The global economy, which contracted by 4.3 per cent in 2020 is forecast to grow by 4 per cent next year if "an initial Covid-19 vaccine rollout becomes widespread throughout the year", the report said.

The report warned that for the South Asia region, "Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside."

Besides severe and longer-lasting coronavirus infection rates, the other risks include "financial and debt distress caused by an abrupt tightening of financing conditions or possible widespread corporate bankruptcies".

"Additional stress on domestic banks in the region could be triggered by the economic consequences of a more protracted recovery from the pandemic, which in turn could lead to a rise in bankruptcies and weaken the balance sheets of the banking and non-banking sectors," it added.

China, from where the Covid-19 pandemic spread, is expected to see its economy grow by 7.9 per cent -- the world's fastest -- this year after contracting 2 per cent last year.

The report's forecast for the US economy is a 3.5 per cent growth in 2021, after an estimated contraction of 3.6 per cent in 2020.

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May 5,2024

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Maharashtra Leader of Opposition Vijay Namdevrao Wadettiwar waded into controversy after he alleged that an RSS-affiliated cop, and not terrorist Ajmal Kasab, killed former state anti-terrorism squad (ATS) chief Hemant Karkare during the 26/11 Mumbai terror attack.

In a video statement released on Saturday, the Congress leader alleged that the bullet that killed IPS officer Hemant Karkare did not come from the gun of Ajmal Kasab or any of the other nine Pakistani terrorists involved in the attacks.

Instead, he claimed it came from the weapon of a police officer allegedly "dedicated to" the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).

Wadettiwar also accused Ujjwal Nikam, the special public prosecutor in the case and a BJP Lok Sabha candidate from Mumbai North Central, of suppressing this information, labeling him a "traitor."

He questioned the BJP's decision to nominate Nikam for the Lok Sabha polls, accusing the party of protecting traitors.

“During the probe, key information was out. However, it was suppressed by Ujjwal Nikam, who is a traitor. My question is, why is BJP protecting a traitor and nominating such a person for Lok Sabha polls? By doing this, BJP is protecting traitors," Wadettiwar alleged, Times of India reported.

These allegations drew strong responses from Nikam and Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis.

Nikam condemned Wadettiwar's statement as "baseless and irresponsible," expressing pain at the doubts raised over his integrity.

He emphasized the legal steps taken to convict Kasab, calling Wadettiwar's remarks an insult to the victims of the 26/11 attacks.

“What a reckless statement is being made. I am pained by such baseless allegations, raising doubts over my integrity. It clearly reflects the level of electoral politics. I never thought politicians will stoop to such low levels. For political gain? He (Wadettiwar) is insulting not me, but the 166 departed souls and all persons injured in the 26/11 attacks," Nikam said.

He added, “They (Congress) hold Kasab as innocent. Even Pakistan had accepted that Kasab was involved in the conspiracy and in the terror attack on India and was guilty".

He said Indians very well know the legal steps he had taken to ensure Kasab’s conviction.

Nikam said citizens of the nation would on 4 June, the day of results for Lok Sabha polls, give their reply to such allegations, adding he wished not to dignify the “desperate disinformation” with a further response.

Meanwhile, BJP leader and Deputy CM Fadnavis said, “Our alliance is with Nikam, while Congress has joined hands with Kasab".

Shiv Sena spokesperson Kiran Pawaskar said NIA should arrest Wadettiwar and ask him why he was defending Kasab.

Pawaskar criticized the Congress for allegedly supporting terrorists and expressed surprise at the silence of Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray on the matter.

“From Wadettiwar’s statement, it appears Congress is supporting terrorists who attacked Mumbai. More shocking is the fact that Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray has maintained silence over the episode,” he said.

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May 11,2024

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Out of jail and immediately hitting the campaign trail, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal on Saturday trained guns at Prime Minister Narendra Modi claiming that he will make way for Amit Shah next year when he turns 75 after sidelining all BJP leaders, including Yogi Adityanath, and jailing Opposition leaders.

Predicting that the BJP will be reduced to “220-230 seats” in the Lok Sabha polls, he claimed that Yogi Adityanath will be removed as Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister in two months if at all BJP returns to power to ensure Shah’s elevation as Prime Minister, as Modi himself has set the 75-year retirement rule in his party.

Accusing Modi of being dictatorial and seeking to implement ‘One Nation, One Leader’, Kejriwal insisted that the Prime Minister is not seeking votes for himself  and  people voting for BJP should know that they are not voting for Modi but Shah while wondering whether the latter would implement ‘Modi ki Guarantees’.

He also defended his decision not to resign as Chief Minister after his arrest, as it was a “trap” set by the Prime Minister to “finish off” AAP  and felt that JMM top leader Hemant Soren, who resigned as Jharkhand Chief Minister, also should not have quit his post.

Addressing a press conference that turned out to be a meeting of AAP supporters at the party headquarters here a day after he was released from Tihar jail on interim bail, he also asked Modi to “learn from Kejriwal on how to fight corruption”, as he referred to the induction of leaders who were accused of graft into the BJP. 

In his 20-minute address, which came after his visit to the Hanuman Temple in Connaught Place in the national capital, Kejriwal said Modi wants to crush his party as he knows that the AAP with its good work would replace the BJP.

If Modi does 'good work', no one will talk about AAP but people will not accept the attempts to decimate his party, which is working for the people, Kejriwal said.

“The Prime Minister says he fights against corruption but is inducting thieves and dacoits into his party. A leader who he described as one involved in a Rs 70,000 crore scam was inducted into the party ten days after Modi made the charges. If you want to fight corruption, learn from Kejriwal,” he said, citing instances of sacking and arrests of AAP ministers in Delhi and Punjab.

Warning that Opposition leaders like Mamata Banerjee, Tejashwi Yadav, NK Stalin and Uddhav Thackeray will be jailed by Narendra Modi if BJP wins, he said his arrest was meant to be a message to the country that if Kejriwal can be taken into custody, then anybody can be.

“People need to know, his mission's name is 'One Nation, One Leader'. To achieve this, there are two ways. One is to jail all Opposition leaders and the second is to sideline all leaders in BJP if they win. They have already sidelined L K Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi, Sumitra Mahajan, Shivraj Singh Chouhan who brought BJP back to power in Madhya Pradesh, Vasundhara Raje, ML Khattar…” Kejriwal said.

“Who is next in line? It is Yogi Adityanath. Take it in writing from me, if BJP wins, the UP Chief Minister will be changed in two months...He wants to crush democracy in this country. I am fighting against it," he said.

Referring to questions on who will be I.N.D.I.A. bloc's Prime Ministerial candidate, he said he has a counter question as Modi is turning 75 next September and he himself has set the retirement rule in the party.

“Now my question is who is BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate? If they can form the government, Yogi Adityanath will be first sidelined and then Amit Shah will be made the Prime Minister. Modiji is not seeking votes for him but for Amit Shah. Who will fulfil Modi's guarantees? Will Amit Shah fulfil it? I don't think they are going to form a government. But those who are going to vote for BJP should know that they are voting for Amit Shah,” he said.

Insisting that I.N.D.I.A. bloc will form the next government and that AAP will be part of it, Kejriwal promised full statehood for Delhi in such a dispensation. Emphasising that he did not resign when he was arrested because Modi had scripted it to finish off the party, he said he wanted to show that if democracy was jailed, it would run from jail.
 

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May 5,2024

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London: London's Labour mayor Sadiq Khan on Saturday secured a record third term, as the party swept a host of mayoral races and local elections to trounce the ruling Conservatives just months before an expected general election.

Khan, 53, beat Tory challenger Susan Hall by 11 points to scupper largely forlorn Tory hopes that they could prise the UK capital away from Labour for the first time since 2016.

The first Muslim mayor of a Western capital when initially elected then, he had been widely expected to win as the opposition party surges nationally and the Tories struggle to revive their fortunes.

Hours later in the West Midlands, Conservative mayor Andy Street -- bidding for his own third term -- unexpectedly lost to Labour's Richard Parker, dealing a hammer blow to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

That narrow loss left the beleaguered leader with only one notable success in Thursday's votes across England, after Tory mayor Ben Houchen won in Tees Valley, northeast England -- albeit with a vastly reduced majority.

In a dismal set of results, Sunak's party finished a humiliating third in local council tallies after losing nearly 500 seats.

"People across the country have had enough of Conservative chaos and decline and voted for change with Labour," its leader Keir Starmer said shortly after confirmation of Parker's victory.

He called the result "phenomenal" and "beyond our expectations".

Writing earlier in Saturday's Daily Telegraph, Sunak had conceded "voters are frustrated" but tried to argue Labour was "not winning in places they admit they need for a majority".

"We Conservatives have everything to fight for," Sunak insisted.

'Spirit and values'

Labour, out of power since 2010 and trounced by Boris Johnson's Conservatives at the last general election in 2019, also emphatically snatched a parliamentary seat from the Tories.

Starmer has seized on winning the Blackpool South constituency and other successes to demand a general election.

Sunak must order a national vote be held by January 28 next year at the latest, and has said he is planning on a poll in the second half of 2024.

Labour has enjoyed double-digit poll leads for all of his 18 months in charge, as previous Tory scandals, a cost-of-living crisis and various other issues dent his party's standing.
On Thursday, it was defending nearly 1,000 council seats, many secured in 2021 when it led nationwide polls before the implosion of Johnson's premiership and his successor Liz Truss's disastrous 49-day tenure.

In the end, they lost close to half and finished third behind the smaller centrist opposition Liberal Democrats.

Meanwhile Labour swept crunch mayoral races across England, from Yorkshire, Manchester and Liverpool in the north to contests across the Midlands.

In London, Khan netted 44 percent of the vote and saw his margin of victory increase compared to the last contest in 2021.

"It's truly an honour to be re-elected for a third term," he told supporters, accusing his Tory opponent of "fearmongering".

"We ran a campaign that was in keeping with the spirit and values of this great city, a city that regards our diversity not as a weakness, but as an almighty strength -- and one that rejects right hard-wing populism," he added.

'Change course'

If replicated in a nationwide contest, the council tallies suggested Labour would win 34 percent of the vote, with the Tories trailing by nine points, according to the BBC.

Sky News' projection for a general election using the results predicted Labour will be the largest party but short of an overall majority.

Speculation has been rife in Westminster that restive Tory lawmakers could use dire local election results to try to replace Sunak.

Despite the returns being at the worst end of estimates, that prospect has not so far materialised.

Ex-interior minister and Sunak critic Suella Braverman warned in the Sunday Telegraph that Sunak's plan "is not working and he needs to change course", urging a more muscular conservatism.

But she cautioned against trying to replace him, warning "changing leader now won't work: the time to do so came and went".

Meanwhile, polling expert John Curtice assessed there were some concerning signs for Labour, which lost control of one local authority and some councillors elsewhere reportedly over its stance on the Israel-Hamas war.

"These were more elections in which the impetus to defeat the Conservatives was greater than the level of enthusiasm for Labour," Curtice noted in the i newspaper.

"Electorally, it is still far from clear that Sir Keir Starmer is the heir to (Tony) Blair."

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