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New Delhi: India is likely to experience above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2024 monsoon season with La Nina conditions likely to set in by August-September, the IMD has said on Monday.

However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system.

Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events (more rain over a short period) are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods.

Based on data between 1951-2023, India experienced above-normal rainfall in the monsoon season on nine occasions when La Nina followed an El Nino event, India Meteorological Department chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told a press conference here.

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are predicted during the monsoon season. Also, the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is low. These conditions are favourable for the Indian southwest monsoon, he said.

Moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing at present. It is predicted to turn neutral by the time monsoon season commences. Thereafter, models suggest, La Lina conditions may set in by August-September, Mohapatra said.

India received "below-average" cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in 2023, an El Nino year. Before 2023, India recorded "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon season for four years in a row.

El Nino conditions -- periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.

Three large-scale climatic phenomena are considered for forecasting monsoon season rainfall.

The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which occurs due to differential warming of the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass, which also has an impact on the Indian monsoon through the differential heating of the landmass.

The southwest monsoon delivers about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, which is critical for the agriculture sector. Agriculture accounts for about 14 percent of the country's GDP.

Congress workers protested outside the home of Nilesh Kumbhani, the party's candidate from Gujarat's Surat Lok Sabha seat whose nomination form was rejected due to alleged discrepancies, as he was likely to join the BJP, sources said on Tuesday.

The protest came a day after the BJP's Mukesh Dalal was declared the winner from the party stronghold following the withdrawal of all the other eight candidates in the fray.

The sources said that the protesters called Kumbhani a "traitor" and "killer of democracy", adding that he could join the BJP as early as this week.

Kumbhani's nomination form was rejected after he was unable to present even one of his three proposers before Returning Officer Sourabh Pardhi.

The BJP had raised questions about the discrepancies in the signatures of three proposers in his nomination form.

The nomination form of Suresh Padsala, the Congress' substitute candidate from Surat, was also invalidated, pushing the party out of the poll fray in the BJP stronghold.

In his order, Pardhi said the four nomination forms submitted by Kumbhani and Padsala were rejected because at first sight, discrepancies were found in the signatures of the proposers, and they did not appear genuine.

The Lok Sabha elections in the Surat seat was supposed to take place on May 7.

Bengaluru: Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre (KSNDMC) has issued a series of animated shorts in Kannada advising people of appropriate measures to take during extreme temperatures to keep oneself safe.

 “Karnataka has not seen such extreme temperatures and heat waves in the recent past. So, we wanted to ensure a wider reach for safety measures, therefore we decided to issue them in a reader-friendly format,” said an official from KSNDMC.

Meteorological Centre Bengaluru, Indian Meteorological Department, had issued a five-day heat wave warning, lasting till April orange alert, for parts of Karnataka.

“In places like Bagalkote, Vijayapura, Kalaburgi, Yadgir, Raichur, Koppal, Ballari, Tumkur, Mandya, Gadag, Davangere and Chitradurga, the temperature is likely to touch 40 degrees Celsius tomorrow,” said C P Patil, director of the centre.

On April 25, these places recorded a maximum temperature of 39 degrees Celsius.

Orange alert would mean increased likelihood of heat illness symptoms in people who are exposed to sun for a prolonged period of time as well as those who do heavy manual work.

According to Patil, coastal Karnataka will also have very hot and humid weather conditions, making it very uncomfortable for people there.

“It’s best for children and old people to avoid exposure to heat in coastal areas too,” added Patil.

In places where heat wave is predicted, people are advised to avoid direct exposure to sunlight between 12 noon and 3pm.

“When they go out, it is best to use protective goggles, an umbrella or a hat. Also aerated drinks must be avoided since they cause dehydration. Best to drink water as much as possible, even if you don’t feel thirsty,” said M Rajavel, head of LACD, Meteorological Centre, Bengaluru.

People are also advised not to leave the children or pets inside parked vehicles.

The maximum and minimum temperatures of Bengaluru are very likely to be around 37 degree Celsius and 23 degree Celsius respectively for the next 48 hours, said Patil.

Hassan recorded the highest jump from its normal minimum temperature. It recorded 22.6 degrees Celsius, about 2.8 degrees more than usual.

According to IMD, on April 29 light rain is also very likely in isolated places over Bidar, Kalaburgi, Yadgir, Vijayapura, Chikkamagaluru, Hassan, Kodagu, Mysuru, Mandya and Chitradurga districts.

On April 30, light rain is predicted again for Bidar, Kalaburgi, Yadgir, Vijayapura, Raichur, Koppal, Ballari, Chikkamagaluru, Tumkur, Chikkaballapura, Bengaluru Rural, Bengaluru Urban and Kodagu districts.

Incidentally, KSNDMC has also issued a series of animated advisory for lightning safety.

“We also update temperature every 15 minutes in our X handle in coordination with IMD,” added the KSNDMC official.