Karnataka polls 2023: Battle of survival for JDS or kingmaker once again?

News Network
January 15, 2023

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Will the 2023 Karnataka assembly polls be a battle of political survival for former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda-led JD(S), or will the regional party once again emerge as a kingmaker, like it did in 2018, in the event of a hung verdict?

Plagued by desertions, internal rifts, and with the image of a "family party", it remains to be seen how Gowda's son and former Chief Minister H D Kumaraswamy, who is in a way single handedly managing the JD(S)' affairs with aging father taking the back seat, would steer the party in the upcoming Assembly polls.

Since the time of its formation in 1999, JD(S) has never formed a government on its own, but had been in power twice in coalition with both national parties- for 20 months with BJP from February 2006 and with Congress for 14 months after the May 2018 assembly polls- with Kumaraswamy as the Chief Minister.

This time however, the party has set an ambitious target of "mission 123" to independently form a government on its own by winning at least 123 out of total 224 seats going for polls by May, and has been seeking votes repeatedly invoking regional Kannadiga pride and asserting itself to be the only Kannadiga party.

There are however doubts among political observers and within a section of the party itself about JD(S) meeting this ambitious target, as the party's best ever performance so far has been in the 2004 assembly elections, when it won 58 seats, and 40 seats in 2013 was its second best.

In the 2018 polls, JD(S) had managed to win 37 seats. However, some party leaders are hopeful about the JD(S)' prospects of coming to power, by winning a few more seats than they did last time, and once again using the knack of power politics, by holding the key for government formation, in the event of a hung verdict.

"If such a situation arise we will certainly push for our Kumaranna (Kumaraswamy) to become the Chief Minister, but we will be more cautious on our choices and the bargain with the probable alliance partner this time after last time's bad experience," a JD(S) functionary not wanting to be named said, as he maintained that if not 123, the party will at least better its tally this time.

The party’s vote share is stagnant, if not shrinking. It has been ranging between 18-20 per cent, as the party has managed to continue its hold on a sizable number of constituencies, predominantly in the Vokkaliga belt of Old Mysuru region. It is this Gowda family’s hold over the Vokkaliga community that dominates the Old Mysuru region comprising 61 seats (excluding the 28 constituencies in Bengaluru), which the ruling BJP and Congress are looking forward to breaking and improving their prospects.

Congress is considerably strong in Old Mysuru region and has been a traditional rival for the JD(S) in the belt, the BJP however is weak here and is aiming to make swift inroads with an aim to get a clear majority.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah during his recent visit had asked his party leaders to concentrate on the region.

According to political analyst A Narayana from the Azim Premji University, how strong or weak the JD(S) actually is can be decided only after the candidates list is announced, because its survival depends on how many strong aspirants rejected by other parties join it. "It decides two things- the percentage of votes JD(S) is going to poll and the number of seats they win. In constituencies where JD(S) doesn't have strong candidates, they depend on rejects from other parties," he said.

Further, he said that the question is also whether the JD(S) is stronger or weaker in their core area of old Mysuru, when compared to 2018. It appears on the face of it that they are weak, for two reasons- one series of desertions since 2018, second Congress is in a better position among the Vokkaligas; one of the factors for it is D K Shivakumar (a Vokkaliga) as President.

"Also in the 2018 elections, JD(S) won in Mandya and Hassan districts, only because of Vokkaliga anger against Siddaramaiah, and that seems to have not disappeared now but subsided," he said, adding that how the BJP making inroads in Old Mysuru region will affect the JD(S) or Congress, is the question that cannot be answered at the moment.

Political observers are also of the view that the perception about JD(S) being too family centric is one of its major drawbacks.

Eight members of Gowda's immediate family are into active politics. Gowda, who is the JD(S) supremo, is also Member of Rajya Sabha from Karnataka, while his son Kumaraswamy is a former CM and MLA from Channapatna. Kumaraswamy's wife Anitha is MLA from Ramanagara segment, and his son Nikhil, who is the JD(S) youth wing President, had unsuccessfully contested the 2019 Lok Sabha polls from Mandya. The party supremo's elder son H D Revanna is a former minister and MLA from Holenarsipura, his wife Bhavani Revanna was a member of the Hassan Zilla Panchayat, and their sons Prajwal and Suraj are MP from Hassan and a MLC respectively.

The Gowda family has its representation in all the four major houses of public representatives- Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha, Legislative Assembly and Legislative Council.

James Manor, University of London professor, who has been a keen observer of Karnataka's politics, during a webinar recently said, family-centred politics is causing discontent and leading to desertion. "JD(S) suffers from over-centralisation and dictatorial leadership." Narayana too echoing similar sentiments said, the party is perceived to be "over family centric", even among Vokkaligas, leading to leaders deserting the party. "It was also one of the primary reasons for JD(S)' rout in 2019 Lok Sabha polls, which was its lowest point ever since the party's formation."

According to some political observers, JD(S) inability to grow beyond the Vokkaliga-dominated old Mysuru region, other than in certain select pockets of north Karnataka is seen among its other drawbacks.

Kumaraswamy on Saturday however exuded confidence that his party will grow beyond its traditional old Mysuru region in the upcoming assembly polls and form a government on its own strength in Karnataka. He also claimed that there is a strong undercurrent in favour of him and his party, especially in rural areas.

Narayana further pointed out that Vokkaliga's support for JD(S) has not been consistent. "Of all the caste groups in Karnataka, I would say that Vokkaligas are more matured voters...In one election they will support Deve Gowda and when they perceive that his government or party has not done well or have disappointed them, they don't hesitate in shifting to Congress. This has happened consistently."

Amid questions of the party's survival and "shortage" of active leaders, Kumaraswamy is on a "Pancharatna Ratha Yatre", a statewide tour that he is undertaking ahead of polls.

This Yatre is to inform people about a five-fold programme called 'Pancharatna' that the JD(S) plans to implement on coming to power, which includes quality education, farmer welfare and employment. He has already announced a list of 93 candidates for the assembly polls, and will announce the second list of 50-60 candidates in about 10 days. " I want to give opportunity to fresh faces...want to build a second line of leadership in the party," he has said.

JD(S) believes it suffered damage in 2018 polls, when the Congress repeatedly called it the BJP’s ‘B’ team, which resulted in Muslim votes going away. The party's decision to bring C M Ibrahim as its state president might be a step towards regaining minority votes. However, noting that any such impact would be marginal, Narayana said, as there a growing sense of insecurity among Muslims this time they may go for strategic voting in which they may completely vote in favour of a party or in favour of the candidate, who is most likely to win against BJP in their segment.

Whatever said and done, one needs to be careful before writing off the JD(S), as before every election since 2008, discussions have always taken place in media and political circles, about it being a battle of survival for the regional party, but it has continued to remain a relevant force, according to political analysts.

Pointing out that this is seen by some quarters as Deve Gowda’s last election, Manor had recently said, "His emotional pleas for votes may attract more support from Vokkaligas than that of Shivakumar’s. Also, some Vokkaligas resent Siddaramaiah’s emphasis on minorities, backward classes and Dalits. Perhaps, the JD(S) may not do too badly, and if it does even somewhat well, it will be bad news for the Congress." 

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News Network
May 5,2024

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Maharashtra Leader of Opposition Vijay Namdevrao Wadettiwar waded into controversy after he alleged that an RSS-affiliated cop, and not terrorist Ajmal Kasab, killed former state anti-terrorism squad (ATS) chief Hemant Karkare during the 26/11 Mumbai terror attack.

In a video statement released on Saturday, the Congress leader alleged that the bullet that killed IPS officer Hemant Karkare did not come from the gun of Ajmal Kasab or any of the other nine Pakistani terrorists involved in the attacks.

Instead, he claimed it came from the weapon of a police officer allegedly "dedicated to" the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).

Wadettiwar also accused Ujjwal Nikam, the special public prosecutor in the case and a BJP Lok Sabha candidate from Mumbai North Central, of suppressing this information, labeling him a "traitor."

He questioned the BJP's decision to nominate Nikam for the Lok Sabha polls, accusing the party of protecting traitors.

“During the probe, key information was out. However, it was suppressed by Ujjwal Nikam, who is a traitor. My question is, why is BJP protecting a traitor and nominating such a person for Lok Sabha polls? By doing this, BJP is protecting traitors," Wadettiwar alleged, Times of India reported.

These allegations drew strong responses from Nikam and Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis.

Nikam condemned Wadettiwar's statement as "baseless and irresponsible," expressing pain at the doubts raised over his integrity.

He emphasized the legal steps taken to convict Kasab, calling Wadettiwar's remarks an insult to the victims of the 26/11 attacks.

“What a reckless statement is being made. I am pained by such baseless allegations, raising doubts over my integrity. It clearly reflects the level of electoral politics. I never thought politicians will stoop to such low levels. For political gain? He (Wadettiwar) is insulting not me, but the 166 departed souls and all persons injured in the 26/11 attacks," Nikam said.

He added, “They (Congress) hold Kasab as innocent. Even Pakistan had accepted that Kasab was involved in the conspiracy and in the terror attack on India and was guilty".

He said Indians very well know the legal steps he had taken to ensure Kasab’s conviction.

Nikam said citizens of the nation would on 4 June, the day of results for Lok Sabha polls, give their reply to such allegations, adding he wished not to dignify the “desperate disinformation” with a further response.

Meanwhile, BJP leader and Deputy CM Fadnavis said, “Our alliance is with Nikam, while Congress has joined hands with Kasab".

Shiv Sena spokesperson Kiran Pawaskar said NIA should arrest Wadettiwar and ask him why he was defending Kasab.

Pawaskar criticized the Congress for allegedly supporting terrorists and expressed surprise at the silence of Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray on the matter.

“From Wadettiwar’s statement, it appears Congress is supporting terrorists who attacked Mumbai. More shocking is the fact that Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray has maintained silence over the episode,” he said.

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News Network
May 3,2024

Bengaluru: In a fresh development in the alleged Hassan sex abuse case, JD(S) MLA H D Revanna, who was accused of sexually harassing his house help, has been booked for kidnapping a victim allegedly sexually assaulted by his son, Hassan MP Prajwal Revanna. The case was filed late Thursday evening at the KR Nagar police station in Mysuru.

The 20-year-old complainant from KR Nagara accused one Sathish Babanna of taking his mother away forcibly and keeping her in an unknown location at the behest of Revanna.

As per the FIR, Revanna has been named as accused 1 while Babanna was accused 2. The duo were booked under IPC Sections 364A (kidnapping for ransom), 365 (kidnapping or abducting with intent secretly and wrongfully to confine a person) and 34 (acts done by several persons in furtherance of common intention).

The complainant claimed that his mother, whose name and age were not revealed, had worked as a help in Revanna’s house and farm in Holenarasipura for six years, quit the job three years ago and returned to KR Nagara. She then worked for daily wages.

“Nearly three to four days before the Lok Sabha election, Sathish Babanna, who is known to us and hailed from our native place, took my mother to Holenarasipura after saying that Bhavani Revanna, the wife of MLA Revanna, had asked for her,” the complainant alleged, adding that Babanna dropped her back on the day of the polls.

Babanna allegedly told the victim’s mother and father to remain silent and evade the police if they came looking for them and to inform him of the developments.

On April 29, at around 9 pm, when the complainant was home, the suspect Babanna arrived, told the complainant’s mother that Revanna had asked for her and took her away on his motorcycle. The complainant claimed that he wasn’t aware of where Babanna took his mother and he had told him that if the police found her, a case would be registered and they would all go to jail.

On May 1, two of the complainant’s relatives called him on the phone and told him that there was a video of his mother being sexually assaulted by Prajwal and that it was a huge case, the FIR noted. He was also informed by his two friends of his "mother's videos being circulated".

When he asked Babanna later that night, he was allegedly told that there was a photo of his mother standing with a stick when Prajwal had quarrelled with someone earlier and an FIR had been registered. Babanna told the complainant that his mother would have to be released on bail, the FIR noted.

“Babanna told me not to speak on the matter on my phone and asked me to talk from a different phone,” he said, seeking action from the police.

The case has been transferred to the Special Investigation Team (SIT) set up to probe the Hassan sex scandal as per the government order.

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News Network
May 11,2024

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Out of jail and immediately hitting the campaign trail, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal on Saturday trained guns at Prime Minister Narendra Modi claiming that he will make way for Amit Shah next year when he turns 75 after sidelining all BJP leaders, including Yogi Adityanath, and jailing Opposition leaders.

Predicting that the BJP will be reduced to “220-230 seats” in the Lok Sabha polls, he claimed that Yogi Adityanath will be removed as Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister in two months if at all BJP returns to power to ensure Shah’s elevation as Prime Minister, as Modi himself has set the 75-year retirement rule in his party.

Accusing Modi of being dictatorial and seeking to implement ‘One Nation, One Leader’, Kejriwal insisted that the Prime Minister is not seeking votes for himself  and  people voting for BJP should know that they are not voting for Modi but Shah while wondering whether the latter would implement ‘Modi ki Guarantees’.

He also defended his decision not to resign as Chief Minister after his arrest, as it was a “trap” set by the Prime Minister to “finish off” AAP  and felt that JMM top leader Hemant Soren, who resigned as Jharkhand Chief Minister, also should not have quit his post.

Addressing a press conference that turned out to be a meeting of AAP supporters at the party headquarters here a day after he was released from Tihar jail on interim bail, he also asked Modi to “learn from Kejriwal on how to fight corruption”, as he referred to the induction of leaders who were accused of graft into the BJP. 

In his 20-minute address, which came after his visit to the Hanuman Temple in Connaught Place in the national capital, Kejriwal said Modi wants to crush his party as he knows that the AAP with its good work would replace the BJP.

If Modi does 'good work', no one will talk about AAP but people will not accept the attempts to decimate his party, which is working for the people, Kejriwal said.

“The Prime Minister says he fights against corruption but is inducting thieves and dacoits into his party. A leader who he described as one involved in a Rs 70,000 crore scam was inducted into the party ten days after Modi made the charges. If you want to fight corruption, learn from Kejriwal,” he said, citing instances of sacking and arrests of AAP ministers in Delhi and Punjab.

Warning that Opposition leaders like Mamata Banerjee, Tejashwi Yadav, NK Stalin and Uddhav Thackeray will be jailed by Narendra Modi if BJP wins, he said his arrest was meant to be a message to the country that if Kejriwal can be taken into custody, then anybody can be.

“People need to know, his mission's name is 'One Nation, One Leader'. To achieve this, there are two ways. One is to jail all Opposition leaders and the second is to sideline all leaders in BJP if they win. They have already sidelined L K Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi, Sumitra Mahajan, Shivraj Singh Chouhan who brought BJP back to power in Madhya Pradesh, Vasundhara Raje, ML Khattar…” Kejriwal said.

“Who is next in line? It is Yogi Adityanath. Take it in writing from me, if BJP wins, the UP Chief Minister will be changed in two months...He wants to crush democracy in this country. I am fighting against it," he said.

Referring to questions on who will be I.N.D.I.A. bloc's Prime Ministerial candidate, he said he has a counter question as Modi is turning 75 next September and he himself has set the retirement rule in the party.

“Now my question is who is BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate? If they can form the government, Yogi Adityanath will be first sidelined and then Amit Shah will be made the Prime Minister. Modiji is not seeking votes for him but for Amit Shah. Who will fulfil Modi's guarantees? Will Amit Shah fulfil it? I don't think they are going to form a government. But those who are going to vote for BJP should know that they are voting for Amit Shah,” he said.

Insisting that I.N.D.I.A. bloc will form the next government and that AAP will be part of it, Kejriwal promised full statehood for Delhi in such a dispensation. Emphasising that he did not resign when he was arrested because Modi had scripted it to finish off the party, he said he wanted to show that if democracy was jailed, it would run from jail.
 

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