Exit polls predict second term for Modi; setback for BJP in south except Karnataka

News Network
May 19, 2019

May 19: All exit polls released at the conclusion of the seven-phase 17th general election predicted a second term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The counting of votes will take place on May 23.

Most polls indicated minor to considerable setback for Mr. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Uttar Pradesh where it won 71 of 80 seats in 2014, but they were in agreement that the party would firmly hold on to its strongholds in the north and west and make considerable gains in West Bengal.

In southern States barring Karnataka, the BJP is projected to trail far behind opponents. The Congress and its allies are projected to make significant gains compared to the historic low they hit in 2014, but will end up some distance away from the halfway mark of 272 seats in the 543-strong Lok Sabha, according to these polls.

The polls predicted between 242 to 365 for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and between 77 and 164 for the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA). Parties that are unattached to either side, which include the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) whose coalition in Uttar Pradesh is resisting the BJP, could get between 69 and 125 seats, according to various polls.

Exit polls have a long history of going wrong in India. According to Praveen Chakravarty, chairperson of the Congress Data Analytics Department, who compared exit polls with actual outcomes posted on Twitter: “~80% of exit poll seat predictions for all parties in large state elections since 2014 are wrong.” Exit polls are generally considered more accurate than opinion polls conducted before actual voting.

Around the world also, the credibility of opinion polls and exit polls has taken a beating in recent years.

Almost all polls in the Australian election last week got the outcome wrong, and similar was the fate of polls during the 2016 U.S. presidential election and Brexit. But what is common between these polls that went wrong was that all of them under-reported the support for conservative and ultra-nationalist positions. Indian exit polls on Sunday uniformly predicted a massive surge in favour of the BJP.

The exit poll projections indicate that Mr. Modi’s campaign to turn the election into a referendum on his persona rather than the performance of his five-year term has been successful.
 

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News Network
April 25,2024

Bengaluru, Apr 25: Former union minister C M Ibrahim, who was expelled from Janata Dal (Secular) for protesting against party’s alliance with BJP, has stressed on need for a third front not just at the national level, but also in Karnataka. 

Addressing a news conference in Bengaluru on Wednesday, he said he’s planning to form a third front in Karnataka along with Lingayat Seer Dingaleshwar Swami.

Ibrahim said that he will tour the state between April 27 and May 4 and that he would meet Dingaleshwar Swami on April 29. “There is a need for the third front in this country. We will try to establish a third front in association with the seer and we hope we will be successful in those efforts,” he said.

Expressing disappointment with the Congress for not doing enough to gain the full confidence of Muslims, Ibrahim said that Congress is concentrating only on certain communities for votes, and ignoring Muslims. 

“The Congress is not even caring for Muslims and Dalit votes. In some Muslim areas they did not even hold campaigns seeking votes and trying to convince the communities which never vote in their favour. I fear this may lead to low turnout and Congress may lose its vote base,” he opined.

Mentioning about guarantees on which Congress is strongly relying during this election, Ibrahim said, such things won’t work all the time. “Guarantees will not work anymore. Every election you need to give something new to the voters,” he added.

On Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s statement that Congress is trying to appease minorities for votes, Ibrahim requested both Congress and BJP parties not bring Muslims between them. “I request both parties. Leave us alone. Don’t make us sandwiches for your political sake. We are living with peace and hope even the Prime Minister will understand this,” Ibrahim added.

Launching a broadside against Prime Minister Deve Gowda, Ibrahim said, “Deve Gowda has sold his personality itself. Whatever I have told about JD(S) has come true. I pity, a former Prime Minister should not have come to this stage,” he said. 

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News Network
April 26,2024

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Mangaluru/Udupi: The Dakshina Kannada and Udupi-Chikmagalur Lok Sabha constituencies recorded a tentative voter turnout of 77.4% and 76.1% respectively until 6 pm on Friday. In the 2019 polls, Dakshina Kannada recorded 77.9%, while Udupi recorded a 75.8% voter turnout.

The DK Lok Sabha constituency recorded a poll percentage of 71.8% at 5 pm. Among the constituencies, Sullia recorded a maximum of 78.4%, followed by Belthangady at 75.6%, Puttur at 75.2%, Bantwal at 73.7%, Mangalore at 73.5%, Mangalore City North at 69.8%, and Mangalore City South at 61.8%.

Urban apathy continued, with Mangalore City South recording the lowest polling percentage.

Meanwhile, Banjarumale, a remote village in Belthangady taluk, recorded 100% polling with all 111 voters showing up two hours before polling ended at 6pm.

Another interior polling station at Elaneer in the same taluk recorded 82% polling at 4 pm. The booth has 471 voters. The district has a total of 18,18,127 voters, with 9,30,928 females, 8,87,122 men, and 77 transgender individuals.

A good number of people turned out to vote during the early hours. Voters are bearing the scorching sun while stepping out to exercise their franchise as heat wave is sweeping through the state. 

The polling process remained largely peaceful, with long queues observed at polling stations from 7 am onwards in several polling stations. However, technical glitches caused delays at a polling station in Karopady, and at St. Xavier School Bejai, where polling was reportedly delayed by nearly two hours.

Polling staff at a booth near the Mulki police station mistakenly marked the wrong finger with ink during voting. They reportedly applied ink to the index finger of the right hand. According to sources, at least 50 individuals had their index finger of the right hand inked. Deputy Commissioner Mullai Mulihan clarified, "The matter was promptly addressed by the sector office. This error affected 8-9 voters"

A total of 18.18 lakh voters in the Dakshina Kannada Lok Sabha constituency and 15.85 lakh in Udupi-Chikmagalur hold the power to determine the fate of candidates competing for their respective segments. The polling process is currently underway across 1,876 booths in Dakshina Kannada and 1,842 polling stations in the Udupi-Chikmagalur segment.

In Dakshina Kannada, a closely contested battle is anticipated between Captain Brijesh Chowta representing the BJP and Padmaraj R Poojary from the Congress. Meanwhile, in the Udupi-Chikmagalur constituency, Kota Shrinivas Poojary of the BJP and K Jayaprakash Hegde of the Congress are the prominent contenders.

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News Network
April 23,2024

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The Karnataka government's decision to categorise the entire Muslim community as a backward caste for reservation purposes in the state has drawn criticism from the National Commission for Backward Classes (NCBC), which said such blanket categorisation undermines the principles of social justice.

According to the data submitted by the Karnataka Backward Classes Welfare Department, all castes and communities within the Muslim religion have been enlisted as socially and educationally backward classes under Category IIB in the State List of Backward Classes.

The NCBC, during a field visit last year, examined the state's reservation policy for OBCs in educational institutions and government jobs.

"All castes/communities of Muslim religion of Karnataka are being treated as socially and educationally backward classes of citizens and listed as Muslim Caste separately under Category IIB in the State List of Backward Classes for providing them reservation in admission into educational institutions and in appointments to posts and vacancies in the services of the State for the purpose of Articles 15(4) and 16(4) of the Constitution of India," the NCBC said in a statement on Monday night.

This categorisation has led to the provision of reservation benefits for 17 socially and educationally backward castes under Category I and 19 castes under Category II-A, respectively.

The NCBC said the blanket categorisation of Muslims as a backward caste undermines the principles of social justice, particularly for the marginalised Muslim castes and communities identified as socially and educationally backward.

However, the NCBC emphasised that while there are indeed underprivileged and historically marginalised sections within the Muslim community, treating the entire religion as backward overlooks the diversity and complexities within Muslim society.

"The religion-based reservation affects and works against ethics of social justice for categorically downtrodden Muslim castes/communities and identified socially and educationally backward Muslim castes/communities under Category-I (17 Muslim castes) and Category II-A (19 Muslim castes) of State List of Backward Classes. Hence, socially and educationally backward castes/communities cannot be treated at par with an entire religion," the NCBC stated.

The NCBC also voiced concern over the impact of such reservations on the overall framework of social justice, particularly in the context of local body polls.

While Karnataka provides 32 per cent reservation to backward classes in local body elections, including Muslims, the Commission stressed the need for a nuanced approach that accounts for the diversity within these communities.

According to the 2011 Census, Muslims constitute 12.92 per cent of the population in Karnataka.

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