Indian economy to contract by 7% in FY21: SBI Research

Agencies
February 10, 2021

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New Delhi, Feb 10: Pencilling in a GDP growth in third and fourth quarters, SBI Research on Wednesday revised its contraction forecast for the current fiscal year to 7 per cent.

The agency had earlier forecast a 7.4 per cent contraction in 2020-21 GDP numbers. In April-September, the economy contracted 15.7 per cent but the second half may see a surprise 2.8 per cent growth if the SBI analysis turns out to be correct.

Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser at State Bank of India (SBI) said of the 41 high frequency leading indicators, 51 per cent are showing acceleration which should help the economy turn around to the green from the third quarter with a 0.3 percentage point growth which is likely to surprise positively when the final numbers are out.

Read | Govt aims to raise MSMEs' share in GDP to 40%: Nitin Gadkari

In April-June, the Indian economy contracted by a record 23.9 per cent, but dramatically improved to -7.5 per cent in the second quarter. In 2019-20, the economy had grown 4 per cent and in the current fiscal year, it is on course to tank by 7 per cent.

The consensus is -7.5-8 per cent with the NSO pegging it at -7 per cent and RBI at -7.5 per cent.

“We now expect GDP decline for the full year to be around -7 per cent compared to our earlier prediction of –7.4 per cent. Also, Q4 growth will also be in positive territory at around 2.5 per cent,” Ghosh said, adding promptly that the projections are conditional to the absence of any rise in infections.

“We retain our GDP forecast for FY22 at 11 per cent (RBI has pegged it at 10.5 per cent and the economy survey at 11.5 per cent and the budget did not offer a GDP estimate), but with the caveat that 11 per cent will be the floor below which it cannot fall,” he said.

Corporate results so far also reinstate the fact that third quarter would be much better than the previous one. The corporate GVA of 1,129 companies has expanded by 14.7 per cent in October-December compared to 8.6 per cent in second quarter (of 3,758 companies ex- telecom)

On the fiscal gaps, it said 9.5 per cent may be on the higher side. Excluding off-balance sheet liabilities, fiscal deficit will be 8.7 per cent gross tax collection estimate based on revised 2020-21 numbers and collections till December show tax collections will have a degrowth of 8.9 per cent in March quarter on a sequential basis. But in 2021-22 collection may top the budget estimate of Rs 22.17 lakh crore, or 9.9 per cent of GDP.

Also Read | Wrong to term economic crisis act of God, govt policies responsible: CPI

Meanwhile, cash balances of the Centre has declined from the peak Rs 3.4 lakh crore to around Rs 2.3 lakh crore as on February 8.

Given that 85-90 per cent of such cash balances belonged to states that was invested with the Centre, it is possible that states before the closing of accounts of 2020-21 want to spend the cash rather than preserving. 

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News Network
November 27,2025

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Bengaluru: The Vokkaligara Sangha on Thursday issued a stern warning to the Congress, saying the party could face serious electoral repercussions if Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar is not appointed as Chief Minister.

The warning follows the public backing of Shivakumar’s chief ministerial ambition by top Vokkaliga pontiff Nirmalanandanatha Swami, who urged the Congress high command to honor his claim.

“The community supported Congress in the 2023 Assembly elections only because Shivakumar had a real chance to become CM. If he is cheated, we’ll teach the party a big lesson,” said newly elected Sangha president L. Srinivas. He added that Vokkaligas would organize protests under the guidance of community leaders.

General Secretary C.G. Gangadhar pointed out that Congress won more seats in the Vokkaliga-dominated Old Mysuru region due to Shivakumar’s influence, adding, “If Congress wants to retain power, Shivakumar should be made the CM.”

Outgoing president Kenchappa Gowda emphasized Shivakumar’s contribution to Congress’ victory. “Our community voted for Congress thinking he would become CM. Siddaramaiah has also served the party well, but Shivakumar should now be given a chance,” he said.

Former general-secretary Konappa Reddy appealed to Sonia and Rahul Gandhi to recognize Shivakumar’s loyalty and service, saying, “Congress is known to keep its promises. We hope it won’t break the promise made to him.”

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News Network
December 4,2025

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Angry outbursts, long queues, and desperate appeals filled airports across India today as IndiGo grappled with a severe operational breakdown. Hundreds of flights have been cancelled or delayed, leaving thousands of passengers stranded through the night and forcing many to spend long hours at helpdesks.

Social media was flooded with videos of fliers pleading for assistance, accusing the airline of misleading updates, and demanding accommodation after being stuck for 10 to 12 hours at airports such as Hyderabad and Bengaluru.

What Triggered the Meltdown?

IndiGo has attributed the widespread disruption to “a multitude of unforeseen operational challenges.” These include:

•    Minor technology glitches
•    Winter-season schedule adjustments
•    Bad weather
•    Congestion in the aviation network
•    New crew rostering rules (Flight Duty Time Limitations or FDTL)

Among these, the most disruptive has been the implementation of the updated FDTL norms introduced by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) in January 2024.

These rules were designed to reduce pilot fatigue and improve passenger safety. Key changes include:

•    Longer weekly rest periods for flight crew
•    A revised definition of “night,” extending it by an extra hour
•    Tighter caps on flight duty timing and night landings
•    Cutting night shifts for pilots and crew from six per roster cycle to just two

Once these norms became fully enforceable, airlines were required to overhaul rosters well in advance. For IndiGo, this triggered a sudden shortage of crew available for duty, leading to cascading delays and cancellations.

Why IndiGo Was Hit the Hardest

IndiGo is India’s largest airline by a wide margin, operating over 2,200 flights daily. That’s roughly double the number operated by Air India.

When an airline of this size experiences even a 10–20% disruption, it translates to 200–400 flights being delayed or grounded — producing massive spillover effects across the country.

IndiGo also relies heavily on high-frequency overnight operations, a model typical of low-cost carriers that aim to maximise aircraft utilisation and reduce downtime. The stricter FDTL norms clash with these overnight-heavy schedules, forcing the airline to pull back services.

Aviation bodies have also criticised IndiGo’s preparedness. The Airline Pilots' Association of India (ALPA) said airlines were given a two-year window to plan for the new rules but “started preparing rather late.” IndiGo, it said, failed to rebuild crew rosters 15 days in advance as required.

The Federation of Indian Pilots (FIP) went further, calling the crisis the result of IndiGo’s “prolonged and unorthodox lean manpower strategy,” and alleging that the airline adopted a hiring freeze even as it knew the new rules would require more careful staffing.

How Many Flights Are Affected?

In the past 48 hours, over 300 flights have been cancelled. At least 100 more are expected to be cancelled today.

City-wise impact:

•    Hyderabad: 33 expected cancellations; several fliers stranded overnight
•    Bengaluru: over 70 expected cancellations
•    Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata: widespread delays and missed connections

Passengers shared distressing accounts online.

One customer at Hyderabad airport said they waited from 6 PM to 9 AM with “no action taken” regarding their delayed Pune flight. Another said IndiGo repeatedly told them the crew was “arriving soon,” only for the delay to stretch over 12 hours.

IndiGo has apologised for the disruption and promised that operations will stabilise within 48 hours, adding that “calibrated adjustments” are being made to contain the chaos.

What Should Passengers Do Now?

For those flying in the next few days, especially with IndiGo, here are key precautions:

1. Keep Checking Flight Status
Monitor your flight closely before leaving for the airport, as delays may be announced last-minute.

2. Arrive Early
Expect long queues at counters and security due to crowding and rescheduling.

3. Carry Essentials
Pack snacks, water, basic medicines, chargers, and items for children or senior citizens. Extended waiting times should be anticipated.

4. Use Flexible Booking Options
If you booked tickets with a free-date-change or cancellation option, consider using them.
If you haven’t booked yet, prefer refundable or flexible fares, or even consider alternate airlines.

5. Follow IndiGo’s Updates
Keep an eye on IndiGo’s official social media channels and contact customer support for rebooking and refund queries.

What Needs to Change?

Pilot groups have raised concerns not just about staffing but also the planning practices behind it.
The Federation of Indian Pilots accused IndiGo of:

•    Imposing an unexplained hiring freeze despite knowing the FDTL changes were coming
•    Entering non-poaching agreements that limited talent movement
•    Keeping pilot pay frozen
•    Underestimating the need to restructure operations in advance

They have urged DGCA to approve seasonal schedules only after airlines prove they have adequate pilot strength under the new norms.

ALPA also warned that some airlines might be using the delays as an “immature pressure tactic” to push DGCA for relaxations in the new rules — which, if granted, could compromise the very safety standards the norms were meant to protect.

Both pilot bodies stressed that no exemption should dilute safety, and any deviations should be based solely on scientific risk assessment.

Is a Solution in Sight?

While IndiGo says normalcy will return within two days, aviation experts believe that fully stabilising operations could take longer, depending on how quickly the airline can:
•    Re-align rosters
•    Mobilise rested crew
•    Boost staffing
•    Adjust its winter schedule to match regulatory requirements
Passengers are advised to remain prepared for continued delays over the next few days as the airline works through its backlog. 

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News Network
November 30,2025

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Mangaluru, Nov 30: A 22-year-old college student succumbed to her injuries at a private hospital in Mangaluru today, days after she was hit by a goods tempo while crossing a road in Padubidri.

The deceased has been identified as Preksha, a resident of Nadsalu Billitota in Padubidri. The fatal incident occurred as Preksha, who was returning home after completing her examination, attempted to cross the service road towards Mangaluru. She was struck by a goods tempo approaching from the Udupi side, causing her to fall and sustain a severe head injury.

Prompt action from local residents ensured she received immediate first aid before being rushed to a hospital in Mangaluru for specialised treatment. Despite medical efforts, she passed away while undergoing care.

Preksha was a student at Karavali College, Vamanjoor on the outskirts of Mangaluru city. The tragedy is compounded by the fact that she belonged to a financially vulnerable family, having previously lost her father. She is survived by her mother and brother.

A case related to the accident has been registered at the Padubidri police station, and an investigation is underway to determine the exact circumstances that led to the collision. The incident highlights the growing concerns over road safety, particularly on busy service roads, and serves as a tragic reminder of the human cost of traffic accidents.

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