India's economic growth may tank below 5% to a new low, fear experts

Agencies
November 20, 2019

Nov 20: India's economic growth probably hit a new low last quarter, with early forecasts showing expansion below 5 per cent.

Economists at State Bank of India, Nomura Holdings Inc. and Capital Economics Ltd. lowered their growth forecasts for the quarter ended September to between 4.2 per cent to 4.7 per cent. The government is scheduled to publish the data on November 29.

Growth of 4.2 per cent would be the lowest since authorities adopted a new base year for gross domestic product data in 2012. The economy expanded 5 per cent in the three months through June.

"We now believe GDP growth did not bottom in" the April-June period, said Sonal Varma, chief economist for India and Asia at Nomura in Singapore, who is predicting 4.2 per cent growth for last quarter. "High-frequency indicators have plunged and domestic credit conditions remain tight amid weak global demand."

The Reserve Bank of India has cut interest rates five times this year to boost growth, with the monetary easing complemented by fiscal measures, including $20 billion of tax cuts for companies.

"We now expect larger rate cuts from RBI in December," said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, chief economic adviser at State Bank in Mumbai, whose growth estimate matches that of Nomura's Varma. "However, such rate cut is unlikely to lead to any immediate material revival."

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman last week said it was too early to say if the slowdown had bottomed out. Companies are planning new investments which might take time to materialize, she said.

"We doubt that these tailwinds will have been enough to offset the weakness elsewhere," said Shilan Shah, senior India economist at Capital Economics in Singapore, who is forecasting a 4.7 per cent expansion. "It is clear that the recovery in growth we have been forecasting has so far proved elusive."

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News Network
May 6,2024

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Bengaluru: The Congress and BJP will lock horns on the electoral battleground again in less than a fortnight in Karnataka, as the stage is set for the second phase of elections in the 14 remaining Lok Sabha seats on Tuesday.

It is going to be a straight fight between the ruling Congress and BJP in Parliamentary segments in the northern districts. The JD(S) is not contesting in these seats and is supporting its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partner -- the BJP.

The state has a total of 28 Lok Sabha constituencies. The first phase of polling in 14 seats in most of the southern and coastal districts was held on April 26.

A total of 227 candidates -- 206 men and 21 women -- are in the fray for the second phase.

More than 2.59 crore voters are eligible to exercise their franchise in 28,269 polling stations where voting will take place between 7 am to 6 pm.

The segments where elections will be held on Tuesday are: Chikkodi, Belgaum, Bagalkot, Bijapur, Gulbarga, Raichur, Bidar, Koppal, Bellary, Haveri, Dharwad, Uttara Kannada, Davangere and Shimoga.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, BJP had swept all these 14 seats, defeating Congress and JD(S), which were in alliance and ruling the state then.

Having scored a thumping victory in the Assembly elections last year, the Congress now appears determined to put up a strong show.

Karnataka is the most important state for the BJP in south India as it's only here that it has held power in the past.

Speaking to PTI, Karnataka Chief Electoral Officer Manoj Kumar Meena said adequate security arrangements have been made for Tuesday's polling.

"Around 1.45 lakh polling officials have been deployed across the 14 constituencies. In addition, 35,000 civil police personnel, 65 companies of Central Paramilitary forces and armed police of other states will be deployed for the polling day," he said.

Besides this, 4,000 micro-observers will also be on duty and 17,000 polling stations will be covered by webcasting, he added.

Davangere has the maximum number of 30 candidates, followed by 23 in Shimoga and Raichur has the least number - eight.

Former Chief Ministers Basavaraj Bommai (Haveri) and Jagadish Shettar (Balgaum), Union Ministers Pralhad Joshi (Dharwad) and Bhagwanth Khuba (Bidar) -- all from BJP; Congress' Geetha Shivrajkumar (Shimoga) -- wife of actor Shivrajkumar and daughter of former CM S Bangarappa and AICC President Mallikarjun Kharge's son-in-law Radhakrishna Doddamani (Gulbarga), are among the prominent names in the fray.

Also in the contest are MP and veteran BJP leader B S Yediyurappa's son B Y Raghavendra, suspended party leader and former Deputy CM K S Eshwarappa -- both from Shimoga, former Speaker Vishweshwar Hegde Kageri and ex-Minister B Sreeramulu of BJP from Uttara Kannada and Bellary respectively and retired IAS officer G Kumar Naik of Congress from Raichur.

Stakes are high for several Ministers in this phase with their children in fray.

Sons of Ministers Laxmi Hebbalkar and Eshwar Khandre - Mrinal Ravindra Hebbalkar and Sagar Khandre - are contesting from Belgaum and Bidar respectively, while daughters of Ministers Satish Jarkiholi and Shivanand Patil -Priyanka Jarkiholi and Samyukta Patil- are in contention in Chikkodi and Bagalkot respectively.

Prabha Mallikarjun, wife of Minister S S Mallikarjun and daughter-in-law of veteran Congress leader Shamanur Shivashankarappa, is in the fray from Davangere.

The Congress' performance in the elections, especially in the second phase which covers almost all Lingayat-dominated districts, is crucial, as the party did not win one of them in 2019, and to also check whether the grand old party has managed to retain the support of a section of Lingayats -- considered as the BJP's core vote-base -- which seemed to have somewhat shifted towards it in the 2023 Assembly polls.

The Lok Sabha election is being seen as a big test of sorts for Congress state unit chief D K Shivakumar, who has made no secret of his ambition to become chief minister, amid speculations of change in guard mid-way of the Assembly term. The stakes are also high for Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, as victory in this election is seen as key to strengthening his hands, analysts say.

It is also seen as a kind of a "litmus test" for state BJP president B Y Vijayendra, who has the onerous task of helping the party retain its supremacy in the Lok Sabha polls, by regaining its traditional Lingayat vote-base.

Ensuring a BJP sweep is paramount for the son of veteran leader B S Yediyurappa, to consolidate his position and silence critics who have questioned his selection to the post, overlooking seniors and seasoned hands.

The ruling Congress is mostly banking on the implementation of its populist five guarantee schemes while the BJP seems to be leveraging the "Modi factor" to the hilt.

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News Network
May 1,2024

Bengaluru: A red alert denoting severe heat wave has been issued for six districts of Karnataka by the Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre (KSNDMC), as temperatures are likely to cross 46 degrees Celsius.

Bagalkote, Belagavi, Dharwad, Gadag, Haveri and Koppal districts will see temperatures ranging from 40 to 46 degrees Celsius between May 1 and May 9, according to KSNDMC.

The monitoring centre also pointed out that when comparing the maximum temperature recorded in Karnataka in the past seven years – between 2017 and 2024 – April 30, 2024 recorded the highest, 45.6 degrees Celsius.

Meanwhile, in a statement released by the India Meteorological Department in Bengaluru, the trough/wind discontinuity from southeast Madhya Pradesh to South Interior Karnataka (SIK), across Vidarbha, Marathawada and North Interior Karnataka (NIK) extending up to 1.5km above mean sea level persists.

But as per IMD, the department issued a severe heat (red) alert only when the actual maximum temperature crosses 47 degrees Celsius.

The maximum temperatures are likely to continue and also be around 40 to 46 degrees Celsius over parts of NIK districts, such as Raichur, Kalaburgi, Yadgir, Bellary and Vijayapura districts till May 6, the natural disaster management centre said on social media platform X.

The remaining NIK districts, most of the SIK districts and Dakshina Kannada district are likely to experience maximum temperature between 40 and 44 degrees Celsius, it added.

Parts of Kodagu, Udupi, Hassan, Shivamogga, Chikkamagaluru and parts of Uttara Kannada districts are likely to experience between 33 and 40 degrees Celsius till May 6, according to the centre.

From May 7, maximum temperatures are likely to come down by 2 to 3 degrees Celsius across the state, according to KSNDMC.

Meanwhile, as per realised rainfall across the state data by KSNDMC, while isolated rains were observed in six districts -- Haveri, Dharwad, Gadag, Vijayapura, Shivamogga and Uttara Kannada -- dry/negligible rains were received in 25 districts, including Bengaluru rural and urban on April 30.

Maximum rainfall of 35mm was recorded at Bhogavi in Haveri district.

As per the cumulative date of rainfall from January 1 to April 30, only coastal Karnataka recorded an excess of 59% rainfall from usual, while the rest of Karnataka had deficit rainfall ranging from 13% to 80%, said a press release by KSNDMC, which compiles the data from telemetric rain gauge locations established by it across the state.

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News Network
May 2,2024

Bengaluru, May 2: Prajwal Revanna, grandson of former Prime Minister Deve Gowda, was issued fresh summons on Thursday by the Special Investigation Team (SIT) which is investigating the case of obscene videos involving the former JD(S) member, several news outlets reported.

The SIT also junked his appeal which sought seven days time to join the probe, as per these reports.

Prajwal and his father, H D Revanna, have sexual harassment and stalking cases filed against them over the matter. Gowda's son, H D Revanna, however, said that what took place '4-5 years ago' is now being turned into a legal case.

JD(S) in its core committee meeting suspended Prajwal from the party till the end of the probe. Prajwal, meanwhile, took to X to state he would join the probe in seven days time, asserting 'truth will prevail'.

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