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New Delhi: India is likely to experience above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2024 monsoon season with La Nina conditions likely to set in by August-September, the IMD has said on Monday.

However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system.

Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events (more rain over a short period) are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods.

Based on data between 1951-2023, India experienced above-normal rainfall in the monsoon season on nine occasions when La Nina followed an El Nino event, India Meteorological Department chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told a press conference here.

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are predicted during the monsoon season. Also, the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is low. These conditions are favourable for the Indian southwest monsoon, he said.

Moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing at present. It is predicted to turn neutral by the time monsoon season commences. Thereafter, models suggest, La Lina conditions may set in by August-September, Mohapatra said.

India received "below-average" cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in 2023, an El Nino year. Before 2023, India recorded "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon season for four years in a row.

El Nino conditions -- periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.

Three large-scale climatic phenomena are considered for forecasting monsoon season rainfall.

The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which occurs due to differential warming of the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass, which also has an impact on the Indian monsoon through the differential heating of the landmass.

The southwest monsoon delivers about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, which is critical for the agriculture sector. Agriculture accounts for about 14 percent of the country's GDP.

The Election Commission of India on Thursday announced that it had taken cognisance of violations to the Model Code of Conduct by both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi.

While Modi has indulged in a diatribe against Muslims, without naming them, using terms like 'infiltrators' and 'those with more children', Rahul has been accused of making a false claim about 'rise in poverty'.

Both the BJP and INC have raised allegations of causing hatred and divisions based on caste, religion, language, and community, ANI reported.

While the EC had initially refused to comment on Modi's speeches, sources had told PTI that the commission was 'looking into' the remarks made by the BJP leader.

Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, on Friday, said that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) plans to reintroduce electoral bonds in some capacity following extensive consultations with all stakeholders, should it come back to power in the 2024 general elections, according to a report in the Hindustan Times (HT).

HT cited Nirmala Sitharam as saying, “We still have to do a lot of consultation with stakeholders and see what is it that we have to do to make or bring in a framework which will be acceptable to all, primarily retain the level of transparency and completely remove the possibility of black money entering into this.”

However, the Centre has not yet decided whether to seek a review of the ruling made by the Supreme Court (SC), she said.

She further added, “What the scheme, which has been just thrown out by the Supreme Court, brought in was transparency. What prevailed earlier was just free-for-all.”

Launched in 2018, electoral bonds were accessible for acquisition at any State Bank of India (SBI) branch. Contributions made through this programme by corporations and even foreign entities via Indian subsidiaries received full tax exemption, while the identities of the donors remained confidential, safeguarded by both the bank and the recipient political parties.

On February 15, a five-judge Constitution Bench struck down the scheme, deeming it ‘unconstitutional’ due to its complete anonymisation of contributions to political parties. Additionally, the Bench stated that the articulated objectives of curbing black money or illegal election financing did not warrant disproportionately infringing upon voters’ right to information.

FM Sitharaman said, some aspects of the scheme need improvement and they will be brought back following consultations.

She also lashed out at the Opposition’s claims that the BJP disregarded criminal charges against leaders who switched from other parties to join the ruling party.

The HT quoted her as saying, “The BJP can’t sit here and say, you come to my party today, and the case will be closed tomorrow. The case has to go through the courts that have to take a call; they will not just say, “Oh, he’s come to your party, close the case.” Doesn’t happen that way. So is this washing machine a term they want to use for the courts?”

She further said that the Union government plans to simplify the process of taxation and make it easy for investments to come through into the country.