Indian economy shrank 9.6% in 2020-21, can rise with vaccine to 5.4% next fiscal: World Bank

Agencies
January 6, 2021

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Washington, Jan 6: India's economy battered by the Covid-19 pandemic is forecast to crater by 9.6 per cent during the current financial year but can recover by 5.4 per cent next financial year if there is wide vaccination against the disease and it is contained, the World Bank reported on Tuesday.

The Bank's Global Economic Prospects Report said that the optimistic forecast for 2021-22 "assumes that a vaccine will be distributed on a large scale in the region starting the second half of 2021 and that there is no widespread resurgence in infections".

About the economy's contraction, the report said, "In India, the pandemic hit the economy at a time when growth was already decelerating" and "the estimated contraction of the economy by 9.6 per cent during 2020-21 reflects "a sharp drop in household spending and private investment".

Looking ahead, the report said that India's recovery would be constrained by the weak financial sector.

The 5.4 per cent growth rate forecast for in 2021-22 -- a "rebound from a low base" -- would be "offset by muted private investment growth given financial sector weaknesses", the report said noting that "in the financial sector, non-performing loans were already high before the pandemic".

In the South Asia region, the Bank said that the economy overall fell by 6.7 per cent in 2020 "reflecting the effects of the pandemic and nationwide lockdowns, particularly in Bangladesh and India".

But it added, "Activity rebounded in the second half of last year, led by industrial production, as initial stringent lockdowns were eased."

The global economy, which contracted by 4.3 per cent in 2020 is forecast to grow by 4 per cent next year if "an initial Covid-19 vaccine rollout becomes widespread throughout the year", the report said.

The report warned that for the South Asia region, "Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside."

Besides severe and longer-lasting coronavirus infection rates, the other risks include "financial and debt distress caused by an abrupt tightening of financing conditions or possible widespread corporate bankruptcies".

"Additional stress on domestic banks in the region could be triggered by the economic consequences of a more protracted recovery from the pandemic, which in turn could lead to a rise in bankruptcies and weaken the balance sheets of the banking and non-banking sectors," it added.

China, from where the Covid-19 pandemic spread, is expected to see its economy grow by 7.9 per cent -- the world's fastest -- this year after contracting 2 per cent last year.

The report's forecast for the US economy is a 3.5 per cent growth in 2021, after an estimated contraction of 3.6 per cent in 2020.

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News Network
May 5,2024

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London: London's Labour mayor Sadiq Khan on Saturday secured a record third term, as the party swept a host of mayoral races and local elections to trounce the ruling Conservatives just months before an expected general election.

Khan, 53, beat Tory challenger Susan Hall by 11 points to scupper largely forlorn Tory hopes that they could prise the UK capital away from Labour for the first time since 2016.

The first Muslim mayor of a Western capital when initially elected then, he had been widely expected to win as the opposition party surges nationally and the Tories struggle to revive their fortunes.

Hours later in the West Midlands, Conservative mayor Andy Street -- bidding for his own third term -- unexpectedly lost to Labour's Richard Parker, dealing a hammer blow to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

That narrow loss left the beleaguered leader with only one notable success in Thursday's votes across England, after Tory mayor Ben Houchen won in Tees Valley, northeast England -- albeit with a vastly reduced majority.

In a dismal set of results, Sunak's party finished a humiliating third in local council tallies after losing nearly 500 seats.

"People across the country have had enough of Conservative chaos and decline and voted for change with Labour," its leader Keir Starmer said shortly after confirmation of Parker's victory.

He called the result "phenomenal" and "beyond our expectations".

Writing earlier in Saturday's Daily Telegraph, Sunak had conceded "voters are frustrated" but tried to argue Labour was "not winning in places they admit they need for a majority".

"We Conservatives have everything to fight for," Sunak insisted.

'Spirit and values'

Labour, out of power since 2010 and trounced by Boris Johnson's Conservatives at the last general election in 2019, also emphatically snatched a parliamentary seat from the Tories.

Starmer has seized on winning the Blackpool South constituency and other successes to demand a general election.

Sunak must order a national vote be held by January 28 next year at the latest, and has said he is planning on a poll in the second half of 2024.

Labour has enjoyed double-digit poll leads for all of his 18 months in charge, as previous Tory scandals, a cost-of-living crisis and various other issues dent his party's standing.
On Thursday, it was defending nearly 1,000 council seats, many secured in 2021 when it led nationwide polls before the implosion of Johnson's premiership and his successor Liz Truss's disastrous 49-day tenure.

In the end, they lost close to half and finished third behind the smaller centrist opposition Liberal Democrats.

Meanwhile Labour swept crunch mayoral races across England, from Yorkshire, Manchester and Liverpool in the north to contests across the Midlands.

In London, Khan netted 44 percent of the vote and saw his margin of victory increase compared to the last contest in 2021.

"It's truly an honour to be re-elected for a third term," he told supporters, accusing his Tory opponent of "fearmongering".

"We ran a campaign that was in keeping with the spirit and values of this great city, a city that regards our diversity not as a weakness, but as an almighty strength -- and one that rejects right hard-wing populism," he added.

'Change course'

If replicated in a nationwide contest, the council tallies suggested Labour would win 34 percent of the vote, with the Tories trailing by nine points, according to the BBC.

Sky News' projection for a general election using the results predicted Labour will be the largest party but short of an overall majority.

Speculation has been rife in Westminster that restive Tory lawmakers could use dire local election results to try to replace Sunak.

Despite the returns being at the worst end of estimates, that prospect has not so far materialised.

Ex-interior minister and Sunak critic Suella Braverman warned in the Sunday Telegraph that Sunak's plan "is not working and he needs to change course", urging a more muscular conservatism.

But she cautioned against trying to replace him, warning "changing leader now won't work: the time to do so came and went".

Meanwhile, polling expert John Curtice assessed there were some concerning signs for Labour, which lost control of one local authority and some councillors elsewhere reportedly over its stance on the Israel-Hamas war.

"These were more elections in which the impetus to defeat the Conservatives was greater than the level of enthusiasm for Labour," Curtice noted in the i newspaper.

"Electorally, it is still far from clear that Sir Keir Starmer is the heir to (Tony) Blair."

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News Network
April 26,2024

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An Indian-origin woman studying at the prestigious Princeton University in the US is among two students arrested over pro-Palestine protests on the campus, reports student and alumni newspapers.

Tamil Nadu-born Achinthya Sivalingan and Hassan Sayed were arrested after the protesters set up tents for an encampment in a university courtyard early Thursday morning, according to the Princeton Alumni Weekly (PAW).

The two graduate students were arrested on charge of trespassing and have been "immediately barred from the campus", said Jennifer Morrill, a university spokesperson, adding that setting up tents on the campus violated university policy.

However, they have not been evicted and will be allowed into their housing, another varsity spokesperson Michael Hotchkiss confirmed to the Daily Princetonian.

Ms Sivalingam is a student of Masters in Public Affairs in International Development at Princeton while Mr Sayed is a PhD candidate there.

In a statement, Morill said the students were given "repeated warnings from the Department of Public Safety to cease the activity and leave the area" and they now face disciplinary action. After their arrest, the other protesters "voluntarily" packed away their camping gear, she added.

Hotchkiss said the university did not evict anyone on Thursday and that the university allows students barred from campus to stay in their university-owned housing.

The undergraduate students were warned against occupation and encampment exercises in an email Wednesday, according to the Daily Princetonian.

Princeton students, faculty and community members, and even outsiders were part of the demonstration, the PAW cited organizers of the protest as saying. Large, white tents were set up nearby for upcoming reunions and other events.

A student who chose to be identified only as Urvi termed the arrests as "violent", which included the students being zip-tied around their wrists. The university, however, contested this and said the officers did not use any force and the arrests were made without any resistance.

Pro-Palestine protests have rocked the top US universities as thousands of students have hit their campuses to demonstrate against the Gaza deaths due to Israel’s inhuman military operation. 

The protests, which began at Columbia University in New York, have to colleges across the country and saw hundreds of students confronting cops and raising pro-Palestine slogans. The protesters have been calling on their universities to divest from companies that profit from the Gaza war and advocate an immediate ceasefire.

Who is Achinthya Sivalingan?

1. Achinthya Sivalingan was born in Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu and was raised in Columbus, Ohio.

2. She is pursuing a Master of Public Affairs (MPA) degree in International Development at Princeton University. Before that, Ms Sivalingan studied world politics and economics at Ohio State University and was also an Intern at Harvard Law School. 

3. Ms Sivalingan has significant experience in policy issues, having worked with civil society organisations, the legal system, politics, movement building, and private philanthropy. Her previous roles include supporting policy and advocacy work for climate adaptation, agricultural development, and nutrition portfolios at the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. 

4. Ms Sivalingan has worked on a congressional campaign in Ohio's third district and also contributed to land rights and policy initiatives in India at the Centre for Policy Research. 

5. She has been banned from Princeton over pro-Palestine protests and is now facing disciplinary action. 

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News Network
May 2,2024

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Hassan, May 2: JD(S) MLC Suraj Revanna on Thursday said that the scandal and charges of sexual abuse levelled against his brother and Hassan MP Prajwal Revanna was a "conspiracy to weaken their family politically".

He claimed that he has no information about the whereabouts of Prajwal Revanna, who has been served a notice by the Special Investigation Team over the alleged sex scandal involving him.

He termed the scandal and charges of sexual abuse against his brother and his father and MLA H D Revanna, a former Minister, as a conspiracy to weaken them politically, and expressed confidence about Prajwal's win in the Lok Sabha polls.

H D Revanna is the son of JD(S) patriarch and former PM H D Deve Gowda. Prajwal, grandson of Deve Gowda, was the BJP-JD(S) alliance's candidate from Hassan Lok Sabha segment, which went to the polls on April 26.

"The (sex scandal involving Prajwal Revanna) case has been handed over for investigation (to SIT), whatever has to be proved will get proved there. How can I react to it? I don't have information about Prajwal Revanna," Suraj Revanna told reporters here.

On an FIR being registered against his father H D Revanna too, he said, "Let them put a thousand more (FIRs), what has to be proved will ultimately get proved. People of our taluk and district know what Revanna is. I don't want to react."

"Anyone can do anything out of political malice. If you take Hassan politics, there is no competitor for Revanna. There is no one who has done politics like him. To weaken him, all these conspiracies are being hatched," he added.

Scores of explicit video clips allegedly involving Prajwal Revanna had started making the rounds in Hassan recently. The state government has constituted an SIT to probe the alleged sex scandal involving the MP.

The SIT on Tuesday issued notice to Prajwal Revanna and his father Revanna, who have been booked for alleged sexual harassment at the Holenarsipura police station in Hassan district on April 28, based on a complaint by a woman who worked in their house, directing them to appear for investigation.

Prajwal who reportedly left for Germany on April 27, the very next day of the polls, on Wednesday sought seven days' time to appear before the SIT.

Regarding reports of his meeting with Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivakumar, Suraj said they were mere speculations and that he had met the former in January, and after that no such meeting had taken place.

Asked whether JD(S) leaders and workers seem to be in some sort of confusion following the developments around the alleged sex scandal, the MLC said there is no confusion. "Even yesterday there were meetings held to take stock of the situation after the polls. Hundred percent Prajwal Revanna will win."

"Let anyone charge anything, let's wait and see what comes out of the SIT probe," he added.

Victims under pressure?

Meanwhile, victims in the videos of the alleged sex scandal involving the MP, are reportedly refusing to come before the SIT which is probing the case.

Some of the victims are said to have told the SIT officials that they don't want to talk to them about the case, while a few are not reachable, sources said.

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