Black money: List of around 627 people submitted to SC

New Delhi: The BJP-led NDA was ahead with leads in 296 seats and the opposition I.N.D.I.A. bloc not far behind in 227 seats as votes were counted for the Lok Sabha elections on Tuesday, setting the course for a third consecutive term as prime minister for Narendra Modi but with a stronger opposition.

While the BJP was ahead in 236 of 542 seats, the Congress had leads in 97, signaling a dip for the ruling party from the 303 score in 2019 and a spike for the opposition party’s 52 from the last election. An election marked by acridity and acrimony could end with the treasury benches in reduced numbers and an opposition with more teeth.

In trends available till 11:45 am, the NDA was close to the 300 mark, comfortably over the magic figure of 272 with the opposition I.N.D.I.A. bloc making significant gains.

The country’s most politically significant state Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha, and the BJP’s bastion of power was poised to be the game changer, bringing the ruling NDA down from the promise of ‘400 par’ with which Election 2024 had started.

While the BJP was ahead in 36 seats, down from 62 the last time, the Samajwadi Party was tantalisingly close at 33, a far cry from the five in 2019. The Congress, which had bagged just one seat in the last election, could win eight seats this time, according to trends available on the Election Commission website.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is set to equal Jawaharlal Nehru’s record of being prime minister for a third term, was trailing behind his Congress rival Ajay Rai in Varanasi in the initial rounds but gained soon after.

His party colleague Smriti Irani was trailing behind Congress candidate and the relatively unknown Gandhi family aide Kishori Lal Sharma in Amethi by more than 39,000 votes. Among those leading from the state, where Yogi Adityanath had steered the Hindutva ship for his party, were Rahul Gandhi from Rae Bareli, Rajnath Singh from Lucknow and Akhilesh Yadav from Kannauj.

As SP chief Akhilesh Yadav kept the I.N.D.I.A. bloc morale high in Uttar Pradesh, the Trinamool Congress, another key ally of the opposition alliance, was leading in 29 seats in West Bengal, a tad higher than its 22 in 2019. The BJP, which had 18 seats in the last Lok Sabha election, was ahead in 10 seats.

In neighbouring Bihar, the BJP was ahead in 11 and its partner JD-U in 14, a vote of confidence for its leader Nitish Kumar who swung from INDIA back to the NDA ahead of the elections. The RJD was poised to win five seats.

Maharashtra, with 48 Lok Sabha seats, saw the Shiv Sena split down the middle since the last election. The BJP, which won 23 seats five years ago, was down with leads in 11 seats, while its ally Shiv Sena could get six. On the other end of the spectrum, the Congress was ahead in 11 seats, up from one, and the Shiv Sena (UBT) in 11.

In Andhra Pradesh, the Chandrababu Naidu-led TDP was ahead in 16 seats of 25, the BJP in three and the YSRCP in four.

Trends for Karnataka showed potential gains for the Congress, with leads in seven seats, up from one last time. The BJP, which got 25 seats in 2019, was ahead in 19.

Deeper south in Kerala, the BJP could make its much-debated electoral entry with trends showing it could bag two seats. In parallel, the Congress, which got 15 seats last time, was ahead in 13, including in Wayanad from where Rahul Gandhi was contesting. The CPI-M had gains in one.

Tamil Nadu seemed to be scripting another story, not ceding any space to the saffron party. The ruling DMK was ahead in 20 and the Congress in eight, exactly where they were in 2019.

Assembly elections also wrote their own narrative.

In Odisha, Naveen Patnaik-led BJD was headed for an unexpected defeat, stymieing Patnaik’s bid for a record sixth term as chief minister. The BJP established early leads in at least 50 assembly seats in Odisha. The BJD nominees, on the other hand, were leading in 35 constituencies in 94 of 147 assembly seats in the state for which trends were available.

In Andhra Pradesh, Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party raced towards power with leads in 125 seats in the house of 175, poised to dislodge Y S Jagan Reddy’s YSRCP, which was ahead only in 21 seats.

As the results came in, showing reverses for the BJP and a score far less than it had predicted, BJP MP Tejasvi Surya said, “It is a historic day for the country in many respects. Perhaps there is no parallel in the world in any democratic country where a democratically elected leader of the nation has been consecutively elected for the third time and with an equal or bigger manner than the preceding two times.”

Congress leader Salman Khurshid added, 'I am not saying we have won, I am not saying they have lost. But this is a clear message about facts on the ground.'

According to Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut, the I.N.D.I.A. alliance had surpassed the numbers predicted by the exit polls and claimed the opposition bloc will win 295 Lok Sabha seats.

India is unpredictable. This is an incontrovertible fact that Indians themselves seem to have forgotten over the past decade.

Ever since Prime Minister Narendra Modi stormed into office with an unexpected and unprecedented outright legislative majority in 2014, many have assumed the country’s politics had changed forever.

The age of coalitions was over; India seemed to be heading inexorably toward one-party dominance.

To stock traders and pro-government pundits, the country’s trajectory seemed so clear: It was destined to see steady 8 per cent growth, happy voters, and a prime minister going from strength to strength at home and abroad.

Indian voters chose to disagree. With votes still being counted in the country’s massive general elections and several races still hanging in the balance, Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party looks almost certain to have fallen short of a parliamentary majority. 
That means it will have to depend, for the first time, on fickle smaller parties to hold onto power.

This was what Indian politics looked like for decades prior to Modi’s emergence. Many thought we were living in a new normal. Instead, the old normal has reasserted itself.

In these surprising elections, Modi and the BJP appear to have discovered the limits of hype. An apparently unified public sphere, solidly pro-government media, and impressive growth numbers had left many assuming that Modi’s performance in power had few holes.

Observers should have paid more attention to contrary indicators. Employment growth under Modi has been marginal at best. Social inclusion has been patchy.

While much of the country looks very different from it did in 2014, even more of it looks largely unchanged.

Small-town India has not seen the sort of revolution in infrastructure that cities of equivalent size in China or Southeast Asia have enjoyed over recent decades.

Big metropolises were transformed during the boom years of the 2000s; they have mostly stagnated since then.

Whatever the GDP growth numbers are, whether they are believable or not, one thing is clear: Voters do not believe enough of that growth has reached their wallets.
It’s not surprising such facts have been overlooked. The Modi government and its allies have completely dominated messaging over the past decade.

They sought to maintain, week in and week out, the frenetic pace and outsize enthusiasm that marked the Prime Minister’s initial march to power.

The government thought that the lesson of its sweeping re-election in 2019 was that social conservatism and welfare delivery was enough to maintain control.

But Modi and the BJP have reached the limits of welfare-first politics and saturation advertising. Without real change on the ground, he or any successor may struggle to retain power over the next five years. They will have to pay more attention to governance than to marketing.

There’s a lot that needs attention. Modi came into power promising manufacturing jobs and private-sector-friendly reforms. In this campaign, he instead argued that loans to small-scale entrepreneurs had gone up, proving that jobs were being created — and that increases in share prices for public-sector companies validated his economic performance.

This is clearly a retreat from the ambitions of a decade ago. Any new government must recapture those ambitions; voters clearly expect it.

If India’s politics have indeed returned to normal, its government must, too. Repression of the opposition does not work, not in a country this large and variegated.

For 10 years, Modi has promised to wipe out his principal rivals in the Indian National Congress party. Yet, in this election, the Congress demonstrated that it is not going anywhere.

The government arguably misused investigative agencies to go after opposition leaders in two states in particular, Maharashtra and West Bengal; both have decisively voted against the BJP.

Modi’s personal popularity is such that he and his government can survive the sort of relatively mild rebuke the electorate has delivered. To retain power for a third term, even if dependent on allies, is an historic achievement.

This result is only startling because the Modi hype had completely detached itself from reality.

We do not live, it appears, in a post-truth world. Even the most adept populists must eventually reckon with reality. None of them are immune to the most fundamental rule of politics: If you don’t perform, you perish.

New Delhi: From 'pappu' to 'shehzade', Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has been the prime target of BJP's ridicule for years. Jabs at the Gandhi family have been the BJP leader's main line of attack at the main Opposition Congress in every election over the past decade. But as Congress inches towards a 100-seat tally in this Lok Sabha election -- its best show in a decade -- and the INDIA bloc's tally defies all exit polls, the Gandhi siblings have played a central role.

Mr Gandhi virtually launched his campaign with a Bharat Jodo Yatra across the length and breadth of the country. While the actual impact of the yatra in terms of Lok Sabha seats won is a subject of data and debate, there is no doubt that his public interactions on the trail brought him out of television screens to the people and contributed to shattering the perception the BJP had created of him.

Visuals of Mr Gandhi petting puppies, hugging people and chatting with people from every section of the society, from students to truck drivers to mechanics, showed a side of him the country had not seen before.

As for Priyanka Gandhi, many had expected her to contest the polls this time, and questions were raised when she did not. In her response, Ms Gandhi Vadra has said in several interviews that it was a conscious decision. If both she and Rahul contested the election, they would get tied up with campaigning in one constituency, she had said, adding that the plan was to keep her free for rallies. The move clearly seems to have paid off.

As Mr Gandhi travelled across the country to address rallies of the INDIA bloc, Ms Gandhi Vadra also took up the task of leading the Congress's campaign in family strongholds Amethi and Raebareli. Nine hours into the counting, the party seems set for a win in both seats, including Amethi, where Gandhi family loyalist Kishori Lal Sharma has emerged a giant slayer by defeating Union Minister Smriti Irani -- a sweet revenge for Rahul Gandhi's 2019 defeat.

In these seats, Ms Gandhi Vadra was as much the party's face as its brain. From addressing nukkad sabhas to planning the party's moves, she led the campaign in these prestige battles from scratch.

The 2024 election also saw her emergence as an orator who charms the audience and also connects with them. Her counterstrike to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's charge that the Congress plans to bring a wealth distribution plan and would take away "mangalsutra" had made national headlines.

"He says the Congress wants to take away your gold, your mangalsutra. The country has been independent for 70 years. The Congress ruled for 55 years. Has anyone robbed you of your gold or your mangalsutra? When the war was on, Indira Gandhi gave her gold to the country. My mother's mangalsutra was sacrificed for this country," she had said.

According to a PTI report, the Congress leader was attending a party meeting in Amethi when she told the audience that there was a woman among them who wanted to educate her daughter, but her father-in-law was against it. So, the woman stitched sari falls to save money and ensured that her daughter became a graduate. She then invited the woman to stage as the audience cheered.

Such interactions smashed the image the BJP had created for the Gandhi siblings and the ruling party's "royal family" jabs lost their sheen.

Also significant is the fact that the Congress this time contested just 328 seats out of 543 -- its lowest ever, leaving the remaining 215 seats for INDIA allies. Known to bargain hard for seats and then failing to convert them into wins, this was a big climbdown by the Mallikarjun Kharge-led party. And the move seems to have paid off.

The Congress may still finish with half the seats as compared to the BJP, but the Gandhi siblings shine in its stellar show. And at the Congress press meet this evening, Mr Gandhi underlined sister Priyanka's contribution in the party's performance.