Karnataka polls 2023: Battle of survival for JDS or kingmaker once again?

News Network
January 15, 2023

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Will the 2023 Karnataka assembly polls be a battle of political survival for former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda-led JD(S), or will the regional party once again emerge as a kingmaker, like it did in 2018, in the event of a hung verdict?

Plagued by desertions, internal rifts, and with the image of a "family party", it remains to be seen how Gowda's son and former Chief Minister H D Kumaraswamy, who is in a way single handedly managing the JD(S)' affairs with aging father taking the back seat, would steer the party in the upcoming Assembly polls.

Since the time of its formation in 1999, JD(S) has never formed a government on its own, but had been in power twice in coalition with both national parties- for 20 months with BJP from February 2006 and with Congress for 14 months after the May 2018 assembly polls- with Kumaraswamy as the Chief Minister.

This time however, the party has set an ambitious target of "mission 123" to independently form a government on its own by winning at least 123 out of total 224 seats going for polls by May, and has been seeking votes repeatedly invoking regional Kannadiga pride and asserting itself to be the only Kannadiga party.

There are however doubts among political observers and within a section of the party itself about JD(S) meeting this ambitious target, as the party's best ever performance so far has been in the 2004 assembly elections, when it won 58 seats, and 40 seats in 2013 was its second best.

In the 2018 polls, JD(S) had managed to win 37 seats. However, some party leaders are hopeful about the JD(S)' prospects of coming to power, by winning a few more seats than they did last time, and once again using the knack of power politics, by holding the key for government formation, in the event of a hung verdict.

"If such a situation arise we will certainly push for our Kumaranna (Kumaraswamy) to become the Chief Minister, but we will be more cautious on our choices and the bargain with the probable alliance partner this time after last time's bad experience," a JD(S) functionary not wanting to be named said, as he maintained that if not 123, the party will at least better its tally this time.

The party’s vote share is stagnant, if not shrinking. It has been ranging between 18-20 per cent, as the party has managed to continue its hold on a sizable number of constituencies, predominantly in the Vokkaliga belt of Old Mysuru region. It is this Gowda family’s hold over the Vokkaliga community that dominates the Old Mysuru region comprising 61 seats (excluding the 28 constituencies in Bengaluru), which the ruling BJP and Congress are looking forward to breaking and improving their prospects.

Congress is considerably strong in Old Mysuru region and has been a traditional rival for the JD(S) in the belt, the BJP however is weak here and is aiming to make swift inroads with an aim to get a clear majority.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah during his recent visit had asked his party leaders to concentrate on the region.

According to political analyst A Narayana from the Azim Premji University, how strong or weak the JD(S) actually is can be decided only after the candidates list is announced, because its survival depends on how many strong aspirants rejected by other parties join it. "It decides two things- the percentage of votes JD(S) is going to poll and the number of seats they win. In constituencies where JD(S) doesn't have strong candidates, they depend on rejects from other parties," he said.

Further, he said that the question is also whether the JD(S) is stronger or weaker in their core area of old Mysuru, when compared to 2018. It appears on the face of it that they are weak, for two reasons- one series of desertions since 2018, second Congress is in a better position among the Vokkaligas; one of the factors for it is D K Shivakumar (a Vokkaliga) as President.

"Also in the 2018 elections, JD(S) won in Mandya and Hassan districts, only because of Vokkaliga anger against Siddaramaiah, and that seems to have not disappeared now but subsided," he said, adding that how the BJP making inroads in Old Mysuru region will affect the JD(S) or Congress, is the question that cannot be answered at the moment.

Political observers are also of the view that the perception about JD(S) being too family centric is one of its major drawbacks.

Eight members of Gowda's immediate family are into active politics. Gowda, who is the JD(S) supremo, is also Member of Rajya Sabha from Karnataka, while his son Kumaraswamy is a former CM and MLA from Channapatna. Kumaraswamy's wife Anitha is MLA from Ramanagara segment, and his son Nikhil, who is the JD(S) youth wing President, had unsuccessfully contested the 2019 Lok Sabha polls from Mandya. The party supremo's elder son H D Revanna is a former minister and MLA from Holenarsipura, his wife Bhavani Revanna was a member of the Hassan Zilla Panchayat, and their sons Prajwal and Suraj are MP from Hassan and a MLC respectively.

The Gowda family has its representation in all the four major houses of public representatives- Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha, Legislative Assembly and Legislative Council.

James Manor, University of London professor, who has been a keen observer of Karnataka's politics, during a webinar recently said, family-centred politics is causing discontent and leading to desertion. "JD(S) suffers from over-centralisation and dictatorial leadership." Narayana too echoing similar sentiments said, the party is perceived to be "over family centric", even among Vokkaligas, leading to leaders deserting the party. "It was also one of the primary reasons for JD(S)' rout in 2019 Lok Sabha polls, which was its lowest point ever since the party's formation."

According to some political observers, JD(S) inability to grow beyond the Vokkaliga-dominated old Mysuru region, other than in certain select pockets of north Karnataka is seen among its other drawbacks.

Kumaraswamy on Saturday however exuded confidence that his party will grow beyond its traditional old Mysuru region in the upcoming assembly polls and form a government on its own strength in Karnataka. He also claimed that there is a strong undercurrent in favour of him and his party, especially in rural areas.

Narayana further pointed out that Vokkaliga's support for JD(S) has not been consistent. "Of all the caste groups in Karnataka, I would say that Vokkaligas are more matured voters...In one election they will support Deve Gowda and when they perceive that his government or party has not done well or have disappointed them, they don't hesitate in shifting to Congress. This has happened consistently."

Amid questions of the party's survival and "shortage" of active leaders, Kumaraswamy is on a "Pancharatna Ratha Yatre", a statewide tour that he is undertaking ahead of polls.

This Yatre is to inform people about a five-fold programme called 'Pancharatna' that the JD(S) plans to implement on coming to power, which includes quality education, farmer welfare and employment. He has already announced a list of 93 candidates for the assembly polls, and will announce the second list of 50-60 candidates in about 10 days. " I want to give opportunity to fresh faces...want to build a second line of leadership in the party," he has said.

JD(S) believes it suffered damage in 2018 polls, when the Congress repeatedly called it the BJP’s ‘B’ team, which resulted in Muslim votes going away. The party's decision to bring C M Ibrahim as its state president might be a step towards regaining minority votes. However, noting that any such impact would be marginal, Narayana said, as there a growing sense of insecurity among Muslims this time they may go for strategic voting in which they may completely vote in favour of a party or in favour of the candidate, who is most likely to win against BJP in their segment.

Whatever said and done, one needs to be careful before writing off the JD(S), as before every election since 2008, discussions have always taken place in media and political circles, about it being a battle of survival for the regional party, but it has continued to remain a relevant force, according to political analysts.

Pointing out that this is seen by some quarters as Deve Gowda’s last election, Manor had recently said, "His emotional pleas for votes may attract more support from Vokkaligas than that of Shivakumar’s. Also, some Vokkaligas resent Siddaramaiah’s emphasis on minorities, backward classes and Dalits. Perhaps, the JD(S) may not do too badly, and if it does even somewhat well, it will be bad news for the Congress." 

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coastaldigest.com news network
June 4,2025

Udupi/ Mangaluru, June 4: A 65-year-old cancer patient from Belle village in Kaup taluk, Udupi district, passed away at a private hospital in Manipal on Tuesday, June 3. The patient, who was undergoing treatment for cancer, was confirmed to be Covid-19 positive during his hospital stay.

Officials from the revenue and health departments visited the deceased's home to raise awareness about Covid-19 precautionary measures and urged villagers to strictly follow the Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs). The patient's last rites will be conducted on Wednesday as per Covid-19 protocols.

Meanwhile, in Dakshina Kannada, three female Covid-19 patients aged 64, 57, and 29 years who had tested positive in May have fully recovered and been discharged from care.

Dakshina Kannada District Health Officer (DHO) Dr. H.R. Thimmaiah emphasized that the current Covid variant is mild and the public need not panic. As per government guidelines, all severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) cases and 5% of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases will be tested for Covid-19. All positive samples will be sent for genome sequencing.

To streamline testing, all hospitals in the district, including private institutions, are required to send samples exclusively to the laboratory at Wenlock District Hospital in Mangaluru. A district-wide dry run to demonstrate Covid preparedness will be conducted on Wednesday.

Dr. Thimmaiah assured that government hospitals are fully equipped with adequate medicines, oxygen beds, cylinders, ICUs, ventilators, masks, test kits, PPE kits, and functional oxygen plants to ensure uninterrupted oxygen supply.

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News Network
June 10,2025

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New Delhi: India’s population is projected to reach 1.46 billion in 2025, maintaining its status as the world's most populous nation, according to a new UN demographic report. However, the report highlights a significant demographic shift: India's total fertility rate has fallen below the replacement level.

The 2025 State of World Population (SOWP) Report, titled The Real Fertility Crisis, published by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), urges a shift from concerns about declining fertility rates to addressing unmet reproductive goals. 

It asserts that millions of people cannot achieve their desired fertility outcomes, which poses a greater challenge than underpopulation or overpopulation. The solution, the report suggests, lies in greater reproductive agency—ensuring individuals have the freedom to make informed choices about sex, contraception, and family planning.

Key Findings

•    India’s total fertility rate has declined to 1.9 births per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1. This indicates that, on average, women are having fewer children than needed to maintain population levels over generations, without migration.

•    Despite this trend, India’s youth population remains significant, with:

o    24% aged 0-14
o    17% aged 10-19
o    26% aged 10-24

•    The working-age population (15-64 years) constitutes 68% of the total population, presenting a potential demographic dividend—provided it is met with adequate employment opportunities and policy support.

•    The elderly population (65 and older) currently stands at 7%, and is expected to rise as life expectancy improves.

•    As of 2025, life expectancy at birth is projected to be 71 years for men and 74 years for women.

India's Demographic Transition

According to UN estimates, India's current population is approximately 1.463 billion. While India is now the world's most populous country, projections indicate that the number will continue to grow to around 1.7 billion before gradually declining—a shift expected in about 40 years.

The report highlights how demographic change is influenced by the choices and constraints experienced by millions of couples. While some families actively decide to start or expand their households, others face limited autonomy in reproductive decisions.

In 1960, India's population was 436 million, and the average woman had nearly six children. At the time, fewer than 25% of women used contraception, and less than half attended primary school (World Bank Data, 2020). Over the following decades, educational attainment increased, healthcare access improved, and more women gained decision-making power over their reproductive lives. Today, the average fertility rate is approximately two children per woman.

However, the report emphasizes that despite progress, women in India—and across the globe—still face barriers in achieving full reproductive autonomy. The nation remains part of a group of middle-income countries undergoing rapid demographic shifts, with its population doubling time now estimated at 79 years.

Expert Insights

"India has made remarkable strides in reducing fertility rates—from nearly five children per woman in 1970 to about two today, thanks to better education and expanded reproductive healthcare, leading to significant reductions in maternal mortality," said Andrea M. Wojnar, UNFPA India Representative.

"This progress means millions more mothers are alive today, raising children and strengthening communities. Yet, deep inequalities persist across states, castes, and income groups.

"The real demographic dividend comes when individuals have the freedom and resources to make informed reproductive choices. India has a unique opportunity to demonstrate how reproductive rights and economic prosperity can advance in tandem," Wojnar added.

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coastaldigest.com news network
June 10,2025

Mangaluru: A troubling case of photo misuse on social media has surfaced, where an image of a young man riding a scooter was altered and falsely circulated to claim he was carrying deadly weapons. The incident highlights the growing risk of misinformation and the dangerous consequences such manipulations can cause.

How the Incident Unfolded

Kilpadi resident Mohammed Suhail filed a complaint at the Bajpe Police Station, stating that on June 6, he was traveling to Moodbidri on a scooter with his friend, Wasim Sharif. While passing a construction site, Suhail noticed a white crystal-like stone on the ground, which he picked up, intending to place it in his fish aquarium at home. At the same time, he was holding a vape device in his other hand.

The next day, Suhail was shocked to discover that a photo of him on the scooter was circulating on WhatsApp, falsely alleging that he was carrying swords. His neighbor, Adil Mohammed, informed him of the WhatsApp message and shared a screenshot of the fabricated claim.

Upon checking Instagram, Suhail found that the account Karavali_tigers had posted his photo with exaggerated highlights, accompanied by a caption questioning law enforcement and alleging that individuals were roaming with dangerous weapons unchecked.

To worsen the situation, an audio clip in the Beary language was shared alongside the image, falsely warning that a scooter had passed through Mijar toward Todar carrying “stones and swords”, hinting at potential violence. This misleading content was also widely shared in the WhatsApp group Ulaibettu 24/Breaking News.

The Dangers of False Claims

Such fabricated posts can have serious consequences, including:

•    Inciting communal tensions and disturbing public peace.

•    Damaging the reputation of innocent individuals.

•    Spreading misinformation that can provoke unnecessary fear and distrust.

Use Social Media Responsibly

This case is a stark reminder that images and videos on social media can be twisted to create false narratives. With advanced editing tools and viral platforms, misinformation spreads rapidly, often leading to panic, hostility, and even legal consequences for those falsely accused.

Protect Yourself from Social Media Manipulation

To safeguard against photo misuse and fake news, take these precautions:

> Be cautious about sharing personal images online, especially on public platforms.

> Verify information before believing or forwarding posts—even if they seem urgent.

> Report misleading content immediately to social media platforms or authorities.

> Enable privacy settings to restrict who can access and share your photos.

> Avoid engaging with inflammatory posts that seem designed to provoke unrest.

Legal Action and Next Steps

Suhail has lodged a complaint with police authorities, urging them to investigate the individuals responsible for spreading false claims using his image. Barke Police have also registered a case against the Instagram account beary-legend for posting provocative and misleading content about a Hindu activist.

Authorities continue to stress the importance of responsible social media use and urge citizens to remain vigilant against online misinformation.

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