Exit polls: BJP wins Jharkhand big, neck-to-neck with PDP in J&K

New Delhi: If shocking trends on counting day could be ranked, Uttar Pradesh would be the topper. Nearly three hours into the counting of votes for Lok Sabha polls, the BJP's big bastion in the past two general elections is witnessing en epic neck-and-neck battle between the BJP-led NDA and INDIA bloc comprising Samajwadi Party and Congress. In fact, INDIA bloc holds a slim lead over NDA. 

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-led NDA won 62 of the state's 80 seats, with the BSP and Samajwadi Party, then allies, winning 10 and five seats, respectively. This time, the BSP is on its own, and early trends do not suggest that it will pull off a good show.

While the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party is contesting 62 seats, the Congress is fighting 17.

The BJP has stuck to its old ally, Apna Dal (Sonelal), and has also brought in Jayant Chaudhary's RLD and OP Rajbhar's Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party into the NDA fold.

For the Congress, Amethi and Rae Bareli, its family strongholds, are prestige battles. This holds especially true for Amethi, where Rahul Gandhi lost to BJP's Smriti Irani last time. As of 11 am, Ms Irani is trailing to Congress's Kishori Lal Sharma, a Gandhi family loyalist. In Rae Bareli, Mr Gandhi is leading by over 60,000 votes.

Exit polls had earlier given the NDA an edge in Uttar Pradesh, but the INDIA bloc leaders had dismissed the projections.

Key Lok Sabha Seats

Among the key Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is currently leading over Congress's Ajay Rai in Varanasi, while Congress MP Rahul Gandhi is ahead in Rae Bareli.

Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav is leading from the Kannauj Lok Sabha seat.

In Lucknow, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, who is seeking a third term, is leading over SP's Ravidas Mehrotra and BSP candidate Sarwar Malik.

Hema Malini, BJP's actor-turned-politician, is ahead in the Mathura constituency against Congress' Mukesh Dhangar.

Union minister Smriti Irani is trailing behind Congress' Kishori Lal Sharma in Amethi.

The share market has posted a massive jump in the early trade, banking on the hopes of political stability as predicted by the exit polls. The 30-share Sensex rallied over 2,000 points this morning while the 50-stock Nifty recorded its biggest jump in four years during the market opening.

Both Sensex and Nifty, the indexes of the Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange, hit their record high levels today. All Sensex and Nifty stocks are now in the green.

At pre-open, Nifty surged over 800 points or 3.58% to 23,227.90 while the Sensex jumped 2,621.98 points or 3.55% to 76,583.29.

Adani Ports, Adani Enterprises, Power Grid, Shriram Finance, and NTPC are among the top performers that led the market rally with significant gains. The latest GDP data suggesting a robust 8.2% fiscal growth also bolstered the market sentiment. 

"Buoyant sentiments are driven by India's impressive Q4FY24 GDP growth of 7.8 per cent, surpassing expectations, with the fiscal year's growth standing at 8.2 per cent," said Varun Aggarwal, founder and managing director of Profit Idea. He also cautioned that the market will remain volatile in anticipation of the results pending tomorrow.

An aggregate of 12 exit polls on Saturday predicted the BJP will return to power with the ruling NDA alliance with 365 seats. A party or an alliance needs at least 272 seats to form government in the country. The market prefers political stability and a change in government usually risks volatility in the share market, according to analysts. 

The exit polls have also predicted that the BJP is set to break ground in Kerala and Tamil Nadu in the south, and make large gains in Odisha and Bengal in the east. There is, however, a health warning: exit polls do not always get it right. 

While the BJP has welcomed the exit poll predictions, the Opposition has dismissed the forecast and said the counting day will throw a completely different picture. Following a meeting of the Opposition leaders part of the INDIA bloc, Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge Saturday said that the bloc will win at least 295 seats out of the total 543.

New Delhi: The BJP-led NDA was ahead with leads in 296 seats and the opposition I.N.D.I.A. bloc not far behind in 227 seats as votes were counted for the Lok Sabha elections on Tuesday, setting the course for a third consecutive term as prime minister for Narendra Modi but with a stronger opposition.

While the BJP was ahead in 236 of 542 seats, the Congress had leads in 97, signaling a dip for the ruling party from the 303 score in 2019 and a spike for the opposition party’s 52 from the last election. An election marked by acridity and acrimony could end with the treasury benches in reduced numbers and an opposition with more teeth.

In trends available till 11:45 am, the NDA was close to the 300 mark, comfortably over the magic figure of 272 with the opposition I.N.D.I.A. bloc making significant gains.

The country’s most politically significant state Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha, and the BJP’s bastion of power was poised to be the game changer, bringing the ruling NDA down from the promise of ‘400 par’ with which Election 2024 had started.

While the BJP was ahead in 36 seats, down from 62 the last time, the Samajwadi Party was tantalisingly close at 33, a far cry from the five in 2019. The Congress, which had bagged just one seat in the last election, could win eight seats this time, according to trends available on the Election Commission website.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is set to equal Jawaharlal Nehru’s record of being prime minister for a third term, was trailing behind his Congress rival Ajay Rai in Varanasi in the initial rounds but gained soon after.

His party colleague Smriti Irani was trailing behind Congress candidate and the relatively unknown Gandhi family aide Kishori Lal Sharma in Amethi by more than 39,000 votes. Among those leading from the state, where Yogi Adityanath had steered the Hindutva ship for his party, were Rahul Gandhi from Rae Bareli, Rajnath Singh from Lucknow and Akhilesh Yadav from Kannauj.

As SP chief Akhilesh Yadav kept the I.N.D.I.A. bloc morale high in Uttar Pradesh, the Trinamool Congress, another key ally of the opposition alliance, was leading in 29 seats in West Bengal, a tad higher than its 22 in 2019. The BJP, which had 18 seats in the last Lok Sabha election, was ahead in 10 seats.

In neighbouring Bihar, the BJP was ahead in 11 and its partner JD-U in 14, a vote of confidence for its leader Nitish Kumar who swung from INDIA back to the NDA ahead of the elections. The RJD was poised to win five seats.

Maharashtra, with 48 Lok Sabha seats, saw the Shiv Sena split down the middle since the last election. The BJP, which won 23 seats five years ago, was down with leads in 11 seats, while its ally Shiv Sena could get six. On the other end of the spectrum, the Congress was ahead in 11 seats, up from one, and the Shiv Sena (UBT) in 11.

In Andhra Pradesh, the Chandrababu Naidu-led TDP was ahead in 16 seats of 25, the BJP in three and the YSRCP in four.

Trends for Karnataka showed potential gains for the Congress, with leads in seven seats, up from one last time. The BJP, which got 25 seats in 2019, was ahead in 19.

Deeper south in Kerala, the BJP could make its much-debated electoral entry with trends showing it could bag two seats. In parallel, the Congress, which got 15 seats last time, was ahead in 13, including in Wayanad from where Rahul Gandhi was contesting. The CPI-M had gains in one.

Tamil Nadu seemed to be scripting another story, not ceding any space to the saffron party. The ruling DMK was ahead in 20 and the Congress in eight, exactly where they were in 2019.

Assembly elections also wrote their own narrative.

In Odisha, Naveen Patnaik-led BJD was headed for an unexpected defeat, stymieing Patnaik’s bid for a record sixth term as chief minister. The BJP established early leads in at least 50 assembly seats in Odisha. The BJD nominees, on the other hand, were leading in 35 constituencies in 94 of 147 assembly seats in the state for which trends were available.

In Andhra Pradesh, Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party raced towards power with leads in 125 seats in the house of 175, poised to dislodge Y S Jagan Reddy’s YSRCP, which was ahead only in 21 seats.

As the results came in, showing reverses for the BJP and a score far less than it had predicted, BJP MP Tejasvi Surya said, “It is a historic day for the country in many respects. Perhaps there is no parallel in the world in any democratic country where a democratically elected leader of the nation has been consecutively elected for the third time and with an equal or bigger manner than the preceding two times.”

Congress leader Salman Khurshid added, 'I am not saying we have won, I am not saying they have lost. But this is a clear message about facts on the ground.'

According to Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut, the I.N.D.I.A. alliance had surpassed the numbers predicted by the exit polls and claimed the opposition bloc will win 295 Lok Sabha seats.