India is likely to receive normal monsoon rains in 2023 despite the likely emergence of the El Nino weather phenomenon, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on 26 May.
“Southwest monsoon season from June to September over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal i.e. 96 to 104 percent of Long period average (LPA)."
As per IMD, “Once the monsoon will get established strong, we are expecting the monsoon to arrive in Kerala around 4th June. Before 1st June, we are not expecting monsoon to arrive."
Hence, the coastal region of Karnataka including Mangaluru is expected to receive monsoon rains by June 7
As per regions, IMD has predicted below normal rainfall in Northwest India i.e. less than 92 percent of LPA whereas normal rainfall has been predicted in North east India, Central India, South Peninsular India.
It also added that Monsoon core zone which consist of most of the rainfed agriculture areas in the country will most likely see normal monsoon i.e. 94-106 percent of LPA.
Speaking of June rainfall predictions, IMD said that average rainfall over the country in this month is most likely to be below normal. It added that some areas of south peninsular India, northwest India, extreme north India and some isolated of northeast India could likely see above normal rainfall.
The weather office further added that there is no cyclone probability in the Arabian sea for next week.
"If rainfall distribution is almost similar everywhere, then it will be an ideal situation. There won't be any problem. If we get equal distribution everywhere, there won't be much impact on agriculture. In northwest India, as of now, below-normal rainfall will be there," it said.