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New Delhi: India is likely to experience above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2024 monsoon season with La Nina conditions likely to set in by August-September, the IMD has said on Monday.

However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system.

Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events (more rain over a short period) are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods.

Based on data between 1951-2023, India experienced above-normal rainfall in the monsoon season on nine occasions when La Nina followed an El Nino event, India Meteorological Department chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told a press conference here.

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are predicted during the monsoon season. Also, the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is low. These conditions are favourable for the Indian southwest monsoon, he said.

Moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing at present. It is predicted to turn neutral by the time monsoon season commences. Thereafter, models suggest, La Lina conditions may set in by August-September, Mohapatra said.

India received "below-average" cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in 2023, an El Nino year. Before 2023, India recorded "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon season for four years in a row.

El Nino conditions -- periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.

Three large-scale climatic phenomena are considered for forecasting monsoon season rainfall.

The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which occurs due to differential warming of the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass, which also has an impact on the Indian monsoon through the differential heating of the landmass.

The southwest monsoon delivers about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, which is critical for the agriculture sector. Agriculture accounts for about 14 percent of the country's GDP.

New Delhi: The Aam Aadmi Party on Saturday alleged that Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal is being pushed towards a “slow death” inside Tihar jail by denying him insulin and consultations with his doctor.

Kejriwal, who has Type-2 diabetes, has been asking for insulin and a video conferencing with his family doctor but his requests are being denied by the jail administration, party spokesperson Saurabh Bharadwaj said in a press conference.

"I want to say with full responsibility that a conspiracy is underway for the slow death of Kejriwal," Bharadwaj claimed citing blood sugar readings of the Chief Minister in jail.

He also slammed the Tihar administration, BJP, Centre and Delhi LG for allegedly denying insulin to Kejriwal and said the Delhi Chief Minister had been suffering from diabetes for the last 20-22 years.

On Friday, the chief minister council Senior advocate Abhishek Singhvi said Kejriwal has not been administered insulin to control his sugar levels since his arrest, terming it “shocking” and “alarming”.

The ED had on Thursday claimed before the court that Kejriwal was eating food high in sugar like mangoes and sweets every day, despite having Type-2 diabetes, to create grounds for medical bail.

Kejriwal, however, refuted the ED’s claims by asserting before a court that the food he consumed was in conformity with the diet chart prepared by his doctor.

“Out of 48 meals sent from home, only three times mangoes were there…,” Singhvi told the court.

Bharadwaj said Kejriwal was allowed by the court to use a machine in the jail to monitor his daily blood sugar levels.

"Overall, it was a conspiracy to finish Kejriwal so his multiple organ damage and when he comes out of jail after 2-4 months he goes for treatment of kidney, heart and other organs," said Bharadwaj, who holds the portfolio of health in Delhi government.

The Karnataka government's decision to categorise the entire Muslim community as a backward caste for reservation purposes in the state has drawn criticism from the National Commission for Backward Classes (NCBC), which said such blanket categorisation undermines the principles of social justice.

According to the data submitted by the Karnataka Backward Classes Welfare Department, all castes and communities within the Muslim religion have been enlisted as socially and educationally backward classes under Category IIB in the State List of Backward Classes.

The NCBC, during a field visit last year, examined the state's reservation policy for OBCs in educational institutions and government jobs.

"All castes/communities of Muslim religion of Karnataka are being treated as socially and educationally backward classes of citizens and listed as Muslim Caste separately under Category IIB in the State List of Backward Classes for providing them reservation in admission into educational institutions and in appointments to posts and vacancies in the services of the State for the purpose of Articles 15(4) and 16(4) of the Constitution of India," the NCBC said in a statement on Monday night.

This categorisation has led to the provision of reservation benefits for 17 socially and educationally backward castes under Category I and 19 castes under Category II-A, respectively.

The NCBC said the blanket categorisation of Muslims as a backward caste undermines the principles of social justice, particularly for the marginalised Muslim castes and communities identified as socially and educationally backward.

However, the NCBC emphasised that while there are indeed underprivileged and historically marginalised sections within the Muslim community, treating the entire religion as backward overlooks the diversity and complexities within Muslim society.

"The religion-based reservation affects and works against ethics of social justice for categorically downtrodden Muslim castes/communities and identified socially and educationally backward Muslim castes/communities under Category-I (17 Muslim castes) and Category II-A (19 Muslim castes) of State List of Backward Classes. Hence, socially and educationally backward castes/communities cannot be treated at par with an entire religion," the NCBC stated.

The NCBC also voiced concern over the impact of such reservations on the overall framework of social justice, particularly in the context of local body polls.

While Karnataka provides 32 per cent reservation to backward classes in local body elections, including Muslims, the Commission stressed the need for a nuanced approach that accounts for the diversity within these communities.

According to the 2011 Census, Muslims constitute 12.92 per cent of the population in Karnataka.