Rahul's elevation will give him right entitlement to lead alliance: Khurshid

India is unpredictable. This is an incontrovertible fact that Indians themselves seem to have forgotten over the past decade.

Ever since Prime Minister Narendra Modi stormed into office with an unexpected and unprecedented outright legislative majority in 2014, many have assumed the country’s politics had changed forever.

The age of coalitions was over; India seemed to be heading inexorably toward one-party dominance.

To stock traders and pro-government pundits, the country’s trajectory seemed so clear: It was destined to see steady 8 per cent growth, happy voters, and a prime minister going from strength to strength at home and abroad.

Indian voters chose to disagree. With votes still being counted in the country’s massive general elections and several races still hanging in the balance, Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party looks almost certain to have fallen short of a parliamentary majority. 
That means it will have to depend, for the first time, on fickle smaller parties to hold onto power.

This was what Indian politics looked like for decades prior to Modi’s emergence. Many thought we were living in a new normal. Instead, the old normal has reasserted itself.

In these surprising elections, Modi and the BJP appear to have discovered the limits of hype. An apparently unified public sphere, solidly pro-government media, and impressive growth numbers had left many assuming that Modi’s performance in power had few holes.

Observers should have paid more attention to contrary indicators. Employment growth under Modi has been marginal at best. Social inclusion has been patchy.

While much of the country looks very different from it did in 2014, even more of it looks largely unchanged.

Small-town India has not seen the sort of revolution in infrastructure that cities of equivalent size in China or Southeast Asia have enjoyed over recent decades.

Big metropolises were transformed during the boom years of the 2000s; they have mostly stagnated since then.

Whatever the GDP growth numbers are, whether they are believable or not, one thing is clear: Voters do not believe enough of that growth has reached their wallets.
It’s not surprising such facts have been overlooked. The Modi government and its allies have completely dominated messaging over the past decade.

They sought to maintain, week in and week out, the frenetic pace and outsize enthusiasm that marked the Prime Minister’s initial march to power.

The government thought that the lesson of its sweeping re-election in 2019 was that social conservatism and welfare delivery was enough to maintain control.

But Modi and the BJP have reached the limits of welfare-first politics and saturation advertising. Without real change on the ground, he or any successor may struggle to retain power over the next five years. They will have to pay more attention to governance than to marketing.

There’s a lot that needs attention. Modi came into power promising manufacturing jobs and private-sector-friendly reforms. In this campaign, he instead argued that loans to small-scale entrepreneurs had gone up, proving that jobs were being created — and that increases in share prices for public-sector companies validated his economic performance.

This is clearly a retreat from the ambitions of a decade ago. Any new government must recapture those ambitions; voters clearly expect it.

If India’s politics have indeed returned to normal, its government must, too. Repression of the opposition does not work, not in a country this large and variegated.

For 10 years, Modi has promised to wipe out his principal rivals in the Indian National Congress party. Yet, in this election, the Congress demonstrated that it is not going anywhere.

The government arguably misused investigative agencies to go after opposition leaders in two states in particular, Maharashtra and West Bengal; both have decisively voted against the BJP.

Modi’s personal popularity is such that he and his government can survive the sort of relatively mild rebuke the electorate has delivered. To retain power for a third term, even if dependent on allies, is an historic achievement.

This result is only startling because the Modi hype had completely detached itself from reality.

We do not live, it appears, in a post-truth world. Even the most adept populists must eventually reckon with reality. None of them are immune to the most fundamental rule of politics: If you don’t perform, you perish.

New Delhi: The BJP-led NDA was ahead with leads in 296 seats and the opposition I.N.D.I.A. bloc not far behind in 227 seats as votes were counted for the Lok Sabha elections on Tuesday, setting the course for a third consecutive term as prime minister for Narendra Modi but with a stronger opposition.

While the BJP was ahead in 236 of 542 seats, the Congress had leads in 97, signaling a dip for the ruling party from the 303 score in 2019 and a spike for the opposition party’s 52 from the last election. An election marked by acridity and acrimony could end with the treasury benches in reduced numbers and an opposition with more teeth.

In trends available till 11:45 am, the NDA was close to the 300 mark, comfortably over the magic figure of 272 with the opposition I.N.D.I.A. bloc making significant gains.

The country’s most politically significant state Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha, and the BJP’s bastion of power was poised to be the game changer, bringing the ruling NDA down from the promise of ‘400 par’ with which Election 2024 had started.

While the BJP was ahead in 36 seats, down from 62 the last time, the Samajwadi Party was tantalisingly close at 33, a far cry from the five in 2019. The Congress, which had bagged just one seat in the last election, could win eight seats this time, according to trends available on the Election Commission website.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is set to equal Jawaharlal Nehru’s record of being prime minister for a third term, was trailing behind his Congress rival Ajay Rai in Varanasi in the initial rounds but gained soon after.

His party colleague Smriti Irani was trailing behind Congress candidate and the relatively unknown Gandhi family aide Kishori Lal Sharma in Amethi by more than 39,000 votes. Among those leading from the state, where Yogi Adityanath had steered the Hindutva ship for his party, were Rahul Gandhi from Rae Bareli, Rajnath Singh from Lucknow and Akhilesh Yadav from Kannauj.

As SP chief Akhilesh Yadav kept the I.N.D.I.A. bloc morale high in Uttar Pradesh, the Trinamool Congress, another key ally of the opposition alliance, was leading in 29 seats in West Bengal, a tad higher than its 22 in 2019. The BJP, which had 18 seats in the last Lok Sabha election, was ahead in 10 seats.

In neighbouring Bihar, the BJP was ahead in 11 and its partner JD-U in 14, a vote of confidence for its leader Nitish Kumar who swung from INDIA back to the NDA ahead of the elections. The RJD was poised to win five seats.

Maharashtra, with 48 Lok Sabha seats, saw the Shiv Sena split down the middle since the last election. The BJP, which won 23 seats five years ago, was down with leads in 11 seats, while its ally Shiv Sena could get six. On the other end of the spectrum, the Congress was ahead in 11 seats, up from one, and the Shiv Sena (UBT) in 11.

In Andhra Pradesh, the Chandrababu Naidu-led TDP was ahead in 16 seats of 25, the BJP in three and the YSRCP in four.

Trends for Karnataka showed potential gains for the Congress, with leads in seven seats, up from one last time. The BJP, which got 25 seats in 2019, was ahead in 19.

Deeper south in Kerala, the BJP could make its much-debated electoral entry with trends showing it could bag two seats. In parallel, the Congress, which got 15 seats last time, was ahead in 13, including in Wayanad from where Rahul Gandhi was contesting. The CPI-M had gains in one.

Tamil Nadu seemed to be scripting another story, not ceding any space to the saffron party. The ruling DMK was ahead in 20 and the Congress in eight, exactly where they were in 2019.

Assembly elections also wrote their own narrative.

In Odisha, Naveen Patnaik-led BJD was headed for an unexpected defeat, stymieing Patnaik’s bid for a record sixth term as chief minister. The BJP established early leads in at least 50 assembly seats in Odisha. The BJD nominees, on the other hand, were leading in 35 constituencies in 94 of 147 assembly seats in the state for which trends were available.

In Andhra Pradesh, Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party raced towards power with leads in 125 seats in the house of 175, poised to dislodge Y S Jagan Reddy’s YSRCP, which was ahead only in 21 seats.

As the results came in, showing reverses for the BJP and a score far less than it had predicted, BJP MP Tejasvi Surya said, “It is a historic day for the country in many respects. Perhaps there is no parallel in the world in any democratic country where a democratically elected leader of the nation has been consecutively elected for the third time and with an equal or bigger manner than the preceding two times.”

Congress leader Salman Khurshid added, 'I am not saying we have won, I am not saying they have lost. But this is a clear message about facts on the ground.'

According to Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut, the I.N.D.I.A. alliance had surpassed the numbers predicted by the exit polls and claimed the opposition bloc will win 295 Lok Sabha seats.

New Delhi: Narendra Modi - to be sworn in Sunday as a three-term Prime Minister after Chandrababu Naidu's TDP and Nitish Kumar's JDU dragged his BJP past the 272-seat majority mark - mocked eternal rivals Congress for failing to win as many seats in this election. The Congress, he declared, had yet again failed to cross the 100-seat mark and won fewer seats in three elections than the BJP had in one.

Mr Modi - whose party finished with 240 seats, its lowest return in 15 years - also said "we were neither defeated nor are we defeated" and claimed, "Our values are such we do not develop frenzy during victory and do not mock the defeated. We do not have perversion of mocking the defeated."

Mr Modi then taunted his rivals over their poor electoral performance.

"Even after 10 years Congress could not touch the figure of 100 seats. If we combine the 2014, 2019, and 2024 elections... Congress did not even get as many seats as BJP got in this election. I can clearly see people of INDI Alliance (the BJP's jibe at the INDIA bloc) were sinking slowly earlier... now they are going to sink at a faster pace..." the Prime Minister-designate proclaimed.

The Congress, which led the INDIA opposition bloc in this election, finished with 99 wins from the 328 seats it contested. That was the party's best result in 15 years; it won 44 in 2014 and 52 in 2019.

The last time the party scored in the triple digits was in 2009 when it won 206 seats and propelled former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the United Progressive Alliance to a second term.

Mr Modi's jibe, though, may be premature, for the Congress could still hit the 100-mark if Vishal Patil, a party rebel who contested and won from Maharashtra's Sangli, re-joins the party.

In a post on X this morning, Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge said, "Welcoming the support of elected MP from Sangli, Shri Vishal Patil to the Congress party".

In a lengthy speech that included multiple jabs and jibes at the Congress and the opposition, Mr Modi also made a pitch for governance by consensus and coalition politics. "Our alliance reflects the spirit of India and we are dedicated to upholding constitutional values. NDA is the most successful..."

"When I was speaking in this House in 2019 you chose me as the leader. Then I emphasised one thing... trust. Today, when you are giving me this role again, it means the bridge of trust between us is strong. This relationship is built on a strong foundation... and that is its biggest asset."

The remarks are seen as acknowledgement of his reliance on allies - new territory after enjoying brute majorities in 2014 and 2019. The BJP needs the support of Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar. Mr Naidu's TDP and the JDU of Nitish Kumar are seen as kingmakers after the TDP and JDU won 28 seats; take those away and the NDA does not have the numbers to form the government.

"The mandate of 2024 is strengthening one thing again and again - the country trusts only NDA. When there is such unbreakable trust, it is natural for expectations to increase. This is good...I said earlier past 10 years were a trailer. It was not an election statement, it was my commitment..."

"For me, all leaders of all parties are equal in Parliament. When we talk about 'sabka prayaas', for us, everyone is equal, whether from our party or not. This is why NDA is strong in past 30 years..."