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New Delhi: India is likely to experience above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2024 monsoon season with La Nina conditions likely to set in by August-September, the IMD has said on Monday.

However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system.

Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events (more rain over a short period) are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods.

Based on data between 1951-2023, India experienced above-normal rainfall in the monsoon season on nine occasions when La Nina followed an El Nino event, India Meteorological Department chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told a press conference here.

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are predicted during the monsoon season. Also, the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is low. These conditions are favourable for the Indian southwest monsoon, he said.

Moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing at present. It is predicted to turn neutral by the time monsoon season commences. Thereafter, models suggest, La Lina conditions may set in by August-September, Mohapatra said.

India received "below-average" cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in 2023, an El Nino year. Before 2023, India recorded "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon season for four years in a row.

El Nino conditions -- periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.

Three large-scale climatic phenomena are considered for forecasting monsoon season rainfall.

The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which occurs due to differential warming of the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass, which also has an impact on the Indian monsoon through the differential heating of the landmass.

The southwest monsoon delivers about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, which is critical for the agriculture sector. Agriculture accounts for about 14 percent of the country's GDP.

Bengaluru: The Congress and BJP will lock horns on the electoral battleground again, in less than a year, in Karnataka as the stage is set for voting in the first phase in 14 Lok Sabha seats on Friday.

It's going to be a straight fight between the ruling Congress and the BJP-JD(S) combine unlike the Assembly elections in May last year which witnessed a triangular contest among the three parties.

The state has a total of 28 Lok Sabha constituencies. The second phase of polling in the remaining 14 seats is on May seven.

A total of 247 candidates -- 226 men and 21 women -- are in the fray for the first phase in most of the southern and coastal districts.

More than 2.88 crore voters are eligible to exercise their franchise in 30,602 polling stations where polling will take place between 7 am to 6 pm.

While the Congress is contesting in all 14 seats, BJP has fielded nominees in 11 and its alliance partner JD(S), which joined the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in three -- Hassan, Mandya and Kolar.

Besides the three, the segments where elections will be held on Friday are: Udupi-Chikmagalur, Dakshina Kannada, Chitradurga, Tumkur, Mysore, Chamarajanagar, Bangalore Rural, Bangalore North, Bangalore Central, Bangalore South and Chikkballapur.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Congress and JD(S), which were in alliance and ruling the state then, had secured just one seat each in these 14 segments. The BJP had won in 11 and ensured the victory of a party supported independent candidate in Mandya.

Having scored a thumping victory in the Assembly elections, the Congress now appears determined to put up a strong show.

Karnataka is the most important state for the BJP in south India as it's only here that it had held power in the past. 'Its alliance partner JD(S) is fighting to remain politically relevant, after the Assembly poll drubbing,' a political analyst said.

The Old Mysore region is the Vokkaliga heartland and parts of it have been the traditional bastion of the JDS.  However, the current elections are a battle for survival for JDS.

According to Karnataka Chief Electoral Officer Manoj Kumar Meena, 1.4 lakh polling officials will be on duty for the first phase.

Besides them, 5,000 micro-observers, 50,000 civil police personnel, 65 companies of Central Parliamentary Force and State Armed Police force of other States will also be deployed for security.

All the 2,829 polling stations of Bangalore Rural parliamentary constituency will be webcast, Meena said.

'This is as per the request of our returning officers and observers; so we have given more than double the Central parliamentary force for Bangalore Rural constituency. Seven companies of Central paramilitary forces have been inducted at the constituency since April 22,' he told reporters on Wednesday.

In fact, out of the total 30,602 polling stations in the first phase, 19,701 will be webcast, and 1,370 covered via CCTVs, he said.

Chikkaballapur has a maximum number of 29 candidates, followed by 24 in Bangalore Central, and Dakshina Kannada has the least number - nine.

JD(S) leader H D Kumaraswamy from Mandya, his brother-in-law and noted cardiologist C N Manjunath from Bangalore Rural on a BJP ticket, erstwhile Mysuru royal family scion Yaduveer Krishnadatta Chamaraja Wadiyar from Mysore, also from the BJP, and Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivakumar's brother and MP D K Suresh of Congress from Bangalore Rural, are among the prominent candidates in the fray in the first phase.

Also in the fray are BJP MP Tejasvi Surya from Bangalore South against Minister Ramalinga Reddy's daughter Sowmya Reddy of Congress, Union Minister Shobha Karandlaje on BJP ticket from Bangalore North against former IIM Bangalore professor M V Rajeev Gowda of Congress.

The Congress' performance in the elections, especially in the first phase which covers almost all Vokkaliga-dominated districts, is being seen as a big test of sorts for its state unit chief Shivakumar, who has made no secret of his ambition to become chief minister, amid speculations of change in guard mid-way of the Assembly term.

Stakes are also high for Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, as victory in particular in his home turf—Mysore and Chamarajanagar—is seen as key for strengthening hands, analysts say.

For the JD(S) and its state chief Kumaraswamy, the task is cut out -- to prove that the regional party is still a force to reckon with, particularly in the Vokkaliga dominated Old Mysuru or South Karnataka region.

Both Shivakumar and Kumaraswamy are Vokkaligas, and are engaged in a fierce turf war to consolidate their clout over the dominant community.

It is also seen as a kind of a 'litmus test' for state BJP president B Y Vijayendra, who has the onerous task of helping the party retain its supremacy in the Lok Sabha elections.

Ensuring a BJP sweep is paramount for the son of veteran leader B S Yediyurappa, to consolidate his position and silence critics who have questioned his selection for the post, overlooking seniors and seasoned hands.

The ruling Congress is mostly banking on the implementation of its populist five guarantee schemes. The BJP and JD(S) seem to be leveraging the 'Modi factor' to the hilt.

Mangaluru, Apr 23: As an outbreak of avian flu has been reported in some districts of neighbouring Kerala, the border areas of Karnataka, including Mangaluru, have been put on high alert, officials of the Karnataka Animal Husbandry department said.

At present, the situation in Kerala is being monitored before any action can be taken, they said.

“Our Kerala counterparts have assured us that the avian flu has been contained within Alappuzha district. However, loading, booking and carrying poultry and poultry products on trains and at railway stations are still under consideration (surveillance), the officials said.

Not only railways but also road transport ferrying chicken loads from Kerala to Mangaluru are under surveillance. Mangaluru, being one of the largest consumers of chicken from Kerala, has halted chicken procurement from Kerala-based suppliers.

Sudhakar Shetty, a market functionary, stated, “The animal husbandry department of Kerala has advised containment of avian flu within a few districts in Kerala. We are closely monitoring the situation.” Despite this, the market has not experienced significant fluctuations in supply yet, as local stocks have been adequate to meet the demand for the next few days.

Demand for chicken could fall for a few days due to a series of temple festivals in coastal areas, where many consumers refrain from consuming meat-based meals until Saturday. Nevertheless, Sunday could witness a change, as consumers may desire hot chicken curry for their Sunday meals, according to the local people.

As officials in the animal husbandry department in Dakshina Kannada have raised awareness in the market about avian flu in the neighbouring state, the question arises whether prices will fall if demand decreases.

“We do not want to contribute to the hysteria surrounding avian flu until our local stock falls below the level of demand,” said Aston D’Souza, a farm owner.

Dakshina Kannada also serves as a good market for suppliers from Shivamogga, Hassan, and Chikkamagaluru.

“In case supplies dwindle due to an unlikely prolonged shutdown of Kerala supplies, we can always purchase from those districts, albeit at a slightly higher cost than Kerala stock,” Shetty said.