Why more vaccinated people are dying of covid in UK than unvaccinated?

News Network
July 16, 2021

London, July 16: More vaccinated people are dying of Covid than unvaccinated people, according to a recent report from Public Health England (PHE). The report shows that 163 of the 257 people (63.4%) who died of the delta variant within 28 days of a positive Covid test between February 1 and June 21, had received at least one dose of the vaccine. At first glance, this may seem alarming, but it is exactly as would be expected.

Here’s a simple thought experiment: imagine everyone is now fully vaccinated with Covid vaccines – which are excellent but can’t save all lives. Some people who get infected with Covid will still die. All of these people will be fully vaccinated – 100%. That doesn’t mean vaccines aren’t effective at reducing death.

The risk of dying from Covid doubles roughly every seven years older a patient is. The 35-year difference between a 35-year-old and a 70-year-old means the risk of death between the two patients has doubled five times – equivalently it has increased by a factor of 32. An unvaccinated 70-year-old might be 32 times more likely to die of Covid than an unvaccinated 35-year-old.

This dramatic variation of the risk profile with age means that even excellent vaccines don’t reduce the risk of death for older people to below the risk for some younger demographics.

PHE data suggests that being double vaccinated reduces the risk of being hospitalised with the now-dominant delta variant by around 96%. Even conservatively assuming the vaccines are no more effective at preventing death than hospitalisation (actually they are likely to be more effective at preventing death) this means the risk of death for double vaccinated people has been cut to less than one-twentieth of the value for unvaccinated people with the same underlying risk profile.

However, the 20-fold decrease in risk afforded by the vaccine isn’t enough to offset the 32-fold increase in underlying risk of death of an 70-year-old over a 35-year-old.

Given the same risk of infection, we would still expect to see more double-vaccinated 70-year-olds die from Covid than unvaccinated 35-year-olds. There are caveats to that simple calculation. The risk of infection is not the same for all age groups. Currently, infections are highest in the youngest and lower in older age groups.

Think of it as ball-bearing rain

One way to imagine the risk is as a rain of differently sized ball bearings falling from the sky, where the ball bearings are the people that get infected with Covid. For simplicity’s sake, let’s assume there are roughly equal numbers of ball bearings in each age group. In each age category, there is also a variation in the size of the balls. The balls representing the older groups are smaller, representing a higher risk of death.

Now imagine there’s a sieve that catches many of the balls. Most people who get Covid will not die (most balls get caught in the sieve). But some of the smaller balls fall through. The older you are, the more likely you are to fall through the holes. The balls that make it through the first sieve are hugely skewed towards older age ranges, represented by the smaller ball bearings. Before Covid vaccines came along, the people that fell through the holes represented the people who would die of Covid. The risk was massively skewed towards older people.

Vaccination provides a second sieve underneath the first, to prevent people from dying. This time, because we haven’t vaccinated everyone, it’s the holes in the sieve that are of different sizes. For older people who’ve had both doses, the holes are smaller, so many ball-bearings are stopped. The vaccines will save many of those who would previously have died.

For younger people the holes in the vaccine sieve are currently bigger as they are less likely to have received both doses and so more likely to fall through the sieve.

If all the filtering were just done by the second sieve (with no skew in risk of death by age, represented by the first sieve), then we might expect younger unvaccinated people to account for a larger proportion of the deaths. But it isn’t. The first sieve is so hugely biased towards older people that even with vaccination, more of them slip through the second sieve than the younger unvaccinated people.

Given the UK’s vaccination strategy (vaccinate older, more vulnerable people first), you would expect high proportions of the people who die from Covid to have been vaccinated. And that is exactly what we see in the data.

The fact that more vaccinated people are dying than unvaccinated people does nothing to undermine vaccine safety or effectiveness. In fact, it’s exactly what we’d expect from the excellent vaccines, which have already saved tens of thousands of lives.

Comments

David Dunning White
 - 
Monday, 4 Apr 2022

What a load of absolute rubbish. These vaccines are neither safe or effective and have not even passed the stage 3 trials. They plainly don't prevent transmission or infection and the claims that they prevent hospitalisation are spurious and unproven and are a last resort at trying to assure the public that they are safe and effective. Beware of these gene therapy jabs unless you want heart problems ,fertility problems and a weakened and useless immune system.

Ramesh Mishra
 - 
Tuesday, 27 Jul 2021

COVID-19, VACCINE DOES NOT GIVE A GUARANTEED LIFE TO ANYONE ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD: People of all ages, races, religions and colours follow the health guidelines issued by the authorities. I have studied, worked and travelled the world for over 50, years, I frequently travel around the world and I have noticed that since the declaration of the pandemic, most of the world was in denial and look at Covid-19, as a joke. The people around the world, and economy is unpredictable due to economic catastrophe and massive death caused by the Covid-19. The law-abiding, disciplined and principled countries would recover fast and the lawless countries would be doomed. The fear of Covid-19 now is in the minds of people around the world and people are afraid to breathe the fresh air. It is our faith that would keep us happy, healthy and alive. Covid-19 is curable and the death incurable.
Ramesh Mishra
Victoria, BC, CANADA

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News Network
March 19,2024

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New Delhi, Mar 19: The Supreme Court today came down heavily on Patanjali Ayurved for failing to respond to a contempt notice for issuing misleading advertisements and ordered yoga guru Ramdev to appear before it.

A bench of Justices Hima Kohli and Ahsanuddin Amanullah also summoned Patanjali managing director Acharya Balkrishna.

The Supreme Court last month pulled up Patanjali for prima facie violation of its assurances about its products and statements claiming their medicinal efficacy. The court had issued a notice to Patanjali and Balkrishna, asking why contempt proceedings should not be initiated against them.

It noted today that Patanjali did not file a response even though it had held a press conference after its previous order. "Why haven't you filed your response yet? We will ask the managing director to appear in the court during the next hearing," the court said.

The order states both Ramdev and Balakrishna were prima facie in violation of Sections 3 and 4 of the Drugs and Remedies Act, which deal with misleading ads of medicines.

The court also issued a contempt notice to Ramdev, co-founder of Patanjali, and asked him to explain why he should not face action for contempt of court.

Senior lawyer Mukul Rohatgi, appearing for Patanjali Ayurved, opposed the move and sought to know, "How Ramdev comes into the picture?"

"You are appearing. We will see on the next date. Enough," the court replied.

"We had our hands tied earlier but not now. As an officer of the court, you (Mr Rohatgi) should know your position," said Justice Amanullah.

The court was hearing a petition by the Indian Medical Association (IMA) alleging a smear campaign by Ramdev against the vaccination drive and modern medicines.

On February 27, it had issued a contempt notice to Patanjali and cautioned them against from making any statements against any system of medicine in the media. It had also pulled up the centre for not taking action and said they were sitting with their eyes closed.

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News Network
March 16,2024

AIE.jpg

Budget carrier Air India Express has launched a new fare family, offering travelers the option to save on flight tickets by traveling light, with an increased baggage allowance of up to 40kg or no check-in luggage at all.

The new fare categories, applicable to flights to and from the UAE and other international destinations, are:

•    Xpress Lite
•    Xpress Value
•    Xpress Flex
•    Xpress Biz

Xpress Lite offers cabin baggage-only fares, making it the most economical option for passengers traveling with the airline.

Xpress Value fare includes 15 kg check-in bag fares, while Xpress Flex offers unlimited changes with no change fees. Xpress Biz features business class seats, complimentary meals, and priority services.

A subsidiary of Air India and a part of Tata Group, the airline introduced Xpress Lite on February 20 for UAE passengers who prefer traveling without check-in baggage.

Xpress Biz fares are accessible on all the new Air India Express Boeing 737-8 aircraft. Travelers can benefit from increased baggage allowances of 25kg for domestic flights and 40kg for international flights when booking Xpress Biz fares. This fare offers priority check-in, baggage, and boarding services.

Air India Express is already operating aircraft with Biz seats across 70-plus routes in India.

In a previous interview with a news channel Aloke Singh, managing director of Air India Express, stated that the carrier was looking to increase capacity to the Gulf region, including the UAE, as well as to provide better connectivity to Gulf travelers.
 

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News Network
March 27,2024

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Gokarna (Uttara Kannada): Karnataka Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivakumar on Wednesday said the Congress will decide about making him the Chief Minister in future, bringing to the fore again the issue of leadership change.

There was stiff competition between Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar for the Chief Minister's post after the Assembly election results in May last year, and the Congress had managed to convince the latter and made him the Deputy Chief Minister.

There were some reports at the time that a compromise had been reached based on a "rotational Chief Minister formula," according to which Shivakumar will become CM after two-and-half years but they have not been officially confirmed by the party.

During a temple visit here, a priest prayed that God's blessings may be showered on Shivakumar, and he became the Chief Minister.

Speaking to reporters here in Uttara Kannada district, Shivakumar, who has in the past made no secret of his ambition to become Chief Minister, amid speculations of change in guard mid-way of the Assembly term, responded to talk in some political circles about the leadership issue.

"What's wrong if a priest expresses his desire before God while praying? The priest has expressed his desire. Now Siddaramaiah is the Chief Minister, I'm working as Deputy Chief Minister under him, also as party's state President. People speak about it and desiring it (Shivakumar should become CM) is a different matter, it will be decided by our party," Shivakumar said.

"Now we are all working under the leadership of Siddaramaiah, and our desire is that the state should progress further under his leadership," he said.

"There will be people including supporters and priests, who pray for us, they will express their opinion. Can we stop them from doing it? At the temple it is between God and his disciple, they have expressed their feelings to God," Shivakumar added. 

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