3.7 million by Nov 2021: India's covid deaths 6 times higher than official count, says new study

News Network
February 17, 2022

A new study on Wednesday again pegged India's Covid-19 mortality at 3.2-3.7 million by November 2021 providing yet another piece of evidence in support of huge under-counting of Covid deaths in India.

Christophe Guilmoto, a researcher at Centre de Sciences Humaines, Delhi has estimated India's Covid death toll at almost six to eight times higher than the official toll, months after the ferocious second wave -- turning India into one of the world's most severely Covid-affected nations.

For comparison, by early November, India’s official Covid toll was 4,59,000, which has now crossed the 5 lakh mark

If 3.2–3.7 million Covid-19 deaths are taken into account, India would emerge as the country with by far the largest number of Covid-19 deaths in the world, well ahead of the USA (0.8 million), Brazil (0.6), or Mexico (0.3).

With such revised estimates, the global Covid death toll would rise by several million to 7.8–8.3 million till November 1, 2021.

Another outcome of the new estimation relates to Covid mortality rates. The highest crude Covid death rates per inhabitant in November 2021 are observed in Peru with 6 per 1,000 and in Eastern Europe where several countries record rates above 3 per 1,000.

India’s revised Covid-19 death rate of 2.3–2.6 per 1,000 is four times as high as the world's average (0.6) and would place India at the 13-19th rank among the most affected countries — rather than at the 127th rank according to official estimates.

The Union Health Ministry earlier rejected past findings with similar conclusions, noting that underlying assumptions of such studies were flawed.

"We are used to criticisms of our computations. But a gap existed between the deaths reported by the government and what was reported from the ground. There was indirect evidence of serious underestimate, but it was difficult to estimate," Guilmoto said.

The CSH scientist arrived at his estimate by looking at Covid-19 mortality in four different sets of populations and subsequently adopting a novel triangulation process for national death estimates.

The four data sets that he used for the study are (1) general population from Kerala (26,628 Covid deaths) (2) MLAs and MPs (43 deaths with a death rate of 7.4 per 1,000), (2) railway employees (1,952 deaths with rate of 1.5) and (4) school teachers in Karnataka (268 deaths with a rate of 1.36).

These four data sets were used because of the reliability of death estimation, regional representativeness, and demographic characteristics. "Covid-19 data from most of the states was not up to the mark, apart from Kerala and to some extent Karnataka and Tamil Nadu," he said.

In January, Prabhat Jha from the University of Toronto and his coworkers published a study in Science, in which they estimated 3.2 million Covid deaths in India between June 1, 2020 and July 1, 2021, the majority of which occurred from April 1 to July 1, 2021. This is six to seven times higher than the official estimate.

India’s reported Covid death totals are widely believed to be under-reported because of factors like incomplete certification and misattribution to chronic diseases. "Our study finds that Indian Covid-19 deaths are substantially greater than estimated from official reports," Jha reported.

Guilmoto’s study has appeared in the journal PLOS One.

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News Network
December 4,2025

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Domestic carrier IndiGo has cancelled over 180 flights from three major airports — Mumbai, Delhi and Bengaluru — on Thursday, December 4, as the airline struggles to secure the required crew to operate its flights in the wake of new flight-duty and rest-period norms for pilots.

While the number of cancellations at Mumbai airport stands at 86 (41 arrivals and 45 departures) for the day, at Bengaluru, 73 flights have been cancelled, including 41 arrivals, according to a PTI report that quoted sources.

"IndiGo cancelled over 180 flights on Thursday at three airports-Mumbai, Delhi and Bengaluru," the source told the news agency.

Besides, it had cancelled as many as 33 flights at Delhi airport for Thursday, the source said, adding, "The number of cancellations is expected to be higher by the end of the day."

The Gurugram-based airline's On-Time Performance (OTP) nosedived to 19.7 per cent at six key airports — Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata, Bengaluru and Hyderabad — on December 3, as it struggled to get the required crew to operate its services, down from almost half of December 2, when it was 35 per cent.

"IndiGo has been facing acute crew shortage since the implementation of the second phase of the FDTL (Flight Duty Time Limitations) norms, leading to cancellations and huge delays in its operations across the airports," a source had told PTI on Wednesday.

Chaos continued at several major airports for the third day on Thursday because of the cancellations.

A spokesperson for the Kempegowda International Airport (KIA) in Bengaluru said that 73 IndiGo flights had been cancelled on Thursday.

At least 150 flights were cancelled and dozens of others delayed on Wednesday, airport sources said, leaving thousands of travellers stranded, according to news agency Reuters.

The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) has said it is investigating IndiGo flight disruptions and has asked the airline to submit the reasons for the current situation, as well as its plans to reduce flight cancellations and delays.

It may be mentioned here that the pilots' body, Federation of Indian Pilots (FIP), has alleged that IndiGo, despite getting a two-year preparatory window before the full implementation of new flight duty and rest period norms for cockpit crew, "inexplicably" adopted a "hiring freeze".

The FIP said it has urged the safety regulator, the DGCA, not to approve airlines' seasonal flight schedules unless they have adequate staff to operate their services "safely and reliably" in accordance with the New Flight Duty Time Limitations (FDTL) norms.

In a letter to the DGCA late on Wednesday, the FIP urged the DGCA to consider re-evaluating and reallocating slots to other airlines, which have the capacity to operate them without disruption during the peak holiday and fog season if IndiGo continues to "fail in delivering on its commitments to passengers due to its own avoidable staffing shortages."

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News Network
November 27,2025

Bengaluru, Nov 27: Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah’s camp is reportedly on alert as the Congress leadership tussle in the state intensifies, particularly amid speculation over the potential promotion of Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar. Siddaramaiah is said to be in a “wait-and-watch” mode after admitting to “confusion” earlier this week and urging the party to “put a full stop” to it.

Sources say his supporters are ready to act if senior leaders — including party chief Mallikarjun Kharge, Sonia Gandhi, and Rahul Gandhi — give any indication of backing Shivakumar. If the party insists on a leadership change, Siddaramaiah’s camp has a list of alternatives, underscoring the deep rift between the two leaders. One possible candidate is Home Minister G. Parameshwara, a Siddaramaiah loyalist and influential Dalit leader.

The strategy was reportedly finalized at a meeting led by PWD Minister Satish Jarkiholi, another Siddaramaiah supporter, who stressed that Delhi leaders need to resolve the issue. Kharge and the Gandhis are expected to meet soon, after which Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar may be summoned to Delhi.

Shivakumar has largely stayed non-confrontational, publicly endorsing Siddaramaiah and downplaying speculation about his own ambitions. However, he has made pointed comments emphasizing the importance of honoring promises, directed at Siddaramaiah.

The feud traces back to the 2023 state election, when Siddaramaiah was chosen as Chief Minister while Shivakumar, who led the party’s campaign, was made Deputy CM and state party chief — a departure from the Congress’ usual “one post per person” rule.

There were also hints of a prior understanding that Siddaramaiah would step down midway through the term. As the halfway mark passed last week, Shivakumar-aligned lawmakers have ramped up pressure on the party for a leadership change, with Shivakumar himself hinting at stepping down as state party chief to pursue the top job.

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News Network
November 27,2025

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Authorities at Pakistan’s high-security Adiala Jail in Rawalpindi on Wednesday dismissed speculation about the condition of imprisoned former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan, rejecting rumours that he had been moved out of the facility or was in danger. Officials said Khan was in “good health” and described the viral death claims as “baseless.”

“There is no truth to reports about his transfer from Adiala Jail,” the Rawalpindi prison administration said in a statement, according to Geo News. “He is fully healthy and receiving complete medical attention.”

Amid swirling rumours on social media, Imran Khan’s party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), urged the federal government to issue an official clarification and demanded that authorities allow his family to meet him immediately, Dawn reported.

The frenzy began after Khan’s three sisters called for an impartial probe into what they described as a “brutal” police assault on them and other PTI supporters outside Adiala Jail last week. Soon after, several social media handles circulated unverified claims alleging that Khan had been “killed” inside the prison.

The rumours intensified when a handle named “Afghanistan Times” claimed that “credible sources” had confirmed Khan’s “murder” and that his body had been moved out of the jail — allegations that have not been verified by any credible agency.

Imran Khan, PTI’s patron-in-chief, has been lodged in the Rawalpindi prison since August 2023 in multiple cases. For over a month, an undeclared restriction has prevented family members and senior PTI leaders from meeting him. Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Sohail Afridi has reportedly been denied access despite making seven attempts.

In a letter to Punjab Police Chief Usman Anwar, Khan’s sisters — Noreen Niazi, Aleema Khan, and Dr. Uzma Khan — said they were “peacefully protesting” outside the jail when police allegedly launched an unprovoked assault after streetlights were switched off.

“At 71, I was seized by my hair, thrown to the ground and dragged across the road,” Noreen Niazi said, alleging that other women present were also slapped and manhandled.

Adiala Jail officials reiterated that speculation over Imran Khan’s health was unfounded and insisted that his well-being was being ensured, Geo News reported.

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