Rupee turns into Asia's worst emerging market currency as funds shun India

Agencies
December 21, 2021

The Indian rupee is set to end a tumultuous year as Asia’s worst-performing emerging market currency with foreign funds fleeing the nation’s stocks.

The currency declined 1.9 per cent this quarter as global funds pulled $4.2 billion of capital out of the country’s stock market, the most among regional markets where data is available.

Foreigners sold Indian stocks as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Nomura Holdings Inc. recently lowered their outlook for equities, citing lofty valuations, at a time when concerns about the Omicron variant are roiling the global markets. Record-high trade deficit and the central bank’s policy divergence with the Federal Reserve have also impinged on the rupee’s carry appeal.

“The monetary policy divergence and widening current account gap have set depreciation in the rupee in the near term,” said B. Prasanna, head of global markets, sales, trading and research at ICICI Bank Ltd in Mumbai.

Depreciation in rupee is a double-edged sword for the Reserve Bank of India. While a weaker currency may support exports amid a nascent economic recovery from the pandemic, it also poses risk of imported inflation, and may make it difficult for the central bank to maintain interest rates at a record low for longer.

QuantArt Market Solutions expects the rupee to decline to 78 per dollar by end-March, falling past the previous record low of 76.9088 reached in April 2020, while a Bloomberg survey of traders and analysts forecast the rupee at 76.50. The rupee is set to drop about 4 per cent this year in a fourth straight year of losses.

Stocks on the edge

Foreign exodus from stocks have led to the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex Index falling by about 10 per cent below an all-time high touched in October. Despite that, the one-year forward price-to-earnings ratio for the Sensex is near 21, compared to 12 for MSCI’s Emerging Markets Index, meaning there’s room for the equities to fall even further. Bonds have seen $587 million of outflows this quarter.

Bearish rupee calls are rising as India’s trade deficit widened to an all-time high of about $23 billion in November amid higher imports. The ample liquidity in the banking system, partly created by the RBI’s dollar purchases, may make it difficult for the central bank to intervene to the same extent in 2022 to curb rupee’s losses, according to Goldman Sachs. 

Still, not all are pessimistic. A likely reversal in foreign inflows in the coming quarter on account of share sales in companies including Life Insurance Corp. of India, billed as India’s biggest initial public offer, may cushion the rupee, according to UBS AG.

The rupee gained 0.4 per cent on Tuesday to 75.63 per dollar, helping pare the recent declines.

Beyond the temporary spike in dollar/rupee expected in the next four-to-six weeks, “we see the one-off flows and supportive 1Q current-account seasonality to come at play,” said Rohit Arora, emerging market Asia strategist at UBS. “As long as oil remains tamed, rupee should end the fiscal year below current levels possibly in 74-75 range.”

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News Network
February 5,2026

Bengaluru: As air quality continues to worsen across several parts of the city, hospitals in Bengaluru are reporting a steady rise in patients suffering from respiratory illnesses such as asthma, bronchitis and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), health officials and doctors said.

Data from the Suvarna Arogya Suraksha Trust (SAST) shows that 3,891 patients received treatment for respiratory ailments between April and November 2024. The figure rose to 4,187 during the same period in 2025.

Private hospitals, too, are witnessing a 10–15 per cent year-on-year increase in such cases.

While doctors caution that the rise cannot be attributed solely to air pollution, a significant number of patients are non-smokers with no prior history of respiratory disease.

“Nearly 70 per cent of the patients we see are non-smokers with no previous respiratory issues. When other causes are ruled out, air pollution emerges as the most likely factor,” said Dr Manjunath PH, consultant interventional pulmonologist at a hospital in Kengeri.

Doctors noted that patient footfall spikes during the winter months and around Deepavali, when air quality typically worsens.

“There is a clear correlation between poor air quality and the rise in cases. People commonly present with persistent cough, breathlessness and irritation of the respiratory tract, indicating the impact of polluted air on their health,” said Dr Sheetal Chaurasia, consultant in pulmonary medicine at a private hospital in Whitefield.

Dr Chaurasia added that respiratory tract infections are also on the rise.

“Poor air quality leads to chronic airway inflammation, making the airways more vulnerable to infections. We are seeing an increase in both upper and lower respiratory tract infections,” she said.

Patients with pre-existing respiratory conditions remain the worst affected.

“For those already diagnosed with respiratory illnesses, deteriorating air quality significantly worsens the condition. Both the frequency and severity of attacks increase sharply,” said Dr Vandana P, a pulmonologist at a hospital on Bannerghatta Road.

Doctors also flagged a worrying trend of rising respiratory problems among younger adults and children.

To reduce exposure, they advised people to wear masks while travelling on two-wheelers or autos and ensure adequate ventilation at home to minimise indoor air pollution.

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News Network
February 1,2026

US President Donald Trump on Saturday claimed that the government of India led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made a deal to buy Venezuelan oil, as opposed to purchasing it from Iran.

"We've already made that deal, the concept of the deal," he told reporters on Air Force One.

Trump had imposed 25% tariffs on countries buying Venezuelan oil, including India, in March 2025. He had also hit India with tariffs for buying Russian oil, saying it was "funding" President Vladimir Putin's war against Ukraine.

Trump has said that the US has taken control of the oil-rich Venezuela after capturing former President Nicolas Maduro in January.

A fleet of 18 ships loaded with crude oil bound for refineries in Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi in January, the most since December 2024, according to a report by the news agency Bloomberg.

Combined crude deliveries to the US will reach about 2,75,000 barrels a day, more than doubling volumes seen in December last year. Shipments to China, which averaged 4,00,000 barrels a day last year, fell to zero in January.

PM Modi, Venezuelan President Agree To Expand Ties

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Venezuela's acting President Delcy Rodriguez spoke on Friday and agreed to take the bilateral relations to "new heights" in the years ahead.

It was the first phone call between the two leaders since the capture of Maduro and his wife by the US on January 3.

"Spoke with Acting President of Venezuela, Ms. Delcy Rodriguez. We agreed to further deepen and expand our bilateral partnership in all areas, with a shared vision of taking India-Venezuela relations to new heights in the years ahead," PM Modi said in a post on X.

A statement from Prime Minister Modi's office said the two leaders agreed to further expand and deepen the India-Venezuela partnership in all areas, including trade and investment, energy, digital technology, health, agriculture, and people-to-people ties.

They exchanged views on various regional and global issues of mutual interest and underscored the importance of their close cooperation for the Global South, the statement said.

Rodriguez also said that they discussed partnerships in the fields of agriculture, science and technology, mining, and tourism, as well as the pharmaceutical and automotive industries.

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